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ECO100Y1 Lecture Notes - Oligopoly

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Jack Carr

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Feb 25, 2009
US needs more industrial strategies
-the China informal sector is huge and growing, agricultural sector is huge, social unrest
-global downsizing has affected all Asian countries from Japan to Thailand, trade is slowing down, export
to US has dropped significantly, industrial production levels are dropping as well
-If export goes down, many of Chinese migrant workers will be out of jobs, speed and ferocity of global
downturn has taken everyone by surprise
-Expected GDP for India 6%-6.5% growth, Japan 1.3% to -1.7% this year, South Korea, from 4.7% to 0.6%,
China 9.3%-7.4%
International Trade
-international sector is the most important, investment rate is the biggest decision countries have to
make, biggest constraint on growth is insufficient foreign exchange, most economic crisis in the world
have been foreign exchange issues.
-as transformation takes place, increase in demand for foreign exchange, marginal propensity to import
rises, more machinery needed, greater stress on foreign exchange earnings
Free Trade/Import substitution Protectionism
-there is improved resource allocation from each strategy, freer trade, economies of scale
Risks associated with either strategy-synthetics development(substitute goods), eg. silk in Japan, raw
rubber in Asia,
-recycling, most of the trade is north-south trade (industrial to low-income countries trading),
-Free trade-risks will reduce the gains from trade
have questions on Rodan/Hirschman on TEST 2
Chenry-Real world and International Trade theory differences
1) Input prices in developing countries are not at market-clearing level, theory assumes that they
are, basic rate is too high, too much unemployment, interest rate obtained by new investment
is too low, some kind of subsidization, foreign exchange rates are fixed(shortage on foreign
market-clearing level
2) Quantity and quality of factors change in the standard trade theory model, assumes factor
endowments are fixed, the quantity and quality of labor/ capital does not change. These
countries grow
3) Increasing returns to scale exist, hard to measure, firms and industries specialize, become more
efficient, lower unit cost, the trade theory starts with pure competition, have only constant
returns to scale, solution in LR is constant returns
4) Other externalities in education, social overhead that are ruled away in international trade
theory-assumes no externalities, economic development programs yields externalities.
Trade Theorist-gains from trade are real
Reading 10.2-krugm-
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