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Lecture

Kondratieff Cycle


Department
Economics
Course Code
ECO100Y1
Professor
Jack Carr

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Kondratieff Cycle
- Russian Economist
- 1922 t long wave cycle
- Sent to Siberia t died in 1930
- Agriculture suffers a pronounced suppression
- During the upswing, the most disastrous wars have occurred
- Until the 1970s, long wave cycle was known as a price cycle, not an investment cycle
- Downward turning point = change in investment
- Multiplier = f(change in investment)
- Gold discover increased the money supply greatly
- Wars
- Disequilibrium in agricultural cycles
- /vv}À]}vAo]]}v}(vÁÁÇ}(Y~M
1. Basic/radical innovation t railway etc. (main innovations t discontinuous t ZÁu[Æ
several innovations in a short period of time)
2. Improvement innovation t television (enhance use of something)
a. All firms are involved in improvement innovation
3. pseudo innovation t new package type (minor innovations)
6 phases of innovation
1. fundamental science t depends on strength of engineers, science, education (economic
environment)
2. scientific discovers (R&D)
3. invention t new product/process (new ideas)
4. development in R&D t second stage in R&D
5. innovation - commercial adoption of a new product/process
6. diffusion of innovation
- financing innovation
o over expansion of economy t imposes risks
o bank credit
- long wave is caused by a swarm of basic innovations
- ^Zµu[Á}l]]]Ànot theoretical
- ^]}v]vZu}}}(]]vv}À]}v_
- Multiplier-accelerator model
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