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Ebba Kurt (12)

Lec 12

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Ebba Kurt

HIS344 – Conflict and Cooperation in the International System Since 1945 Lecture 13 – January 8, 2013 • both sides offered compromise and accepted compromise – global perception was clear-cut American victory, Soviets blinked • from confrontation to detente – recognition of one another as two most important superpowers ◦ incredible concession byAmericans to recognize the Soviets as a superpower ◦ accepted status quo – relative stability and security in IR • Politburo recognized that it was a major defeat for Khrushchev and Soviet Union ◦ after this, Khrushchev was severely criticized for his reforms, attempts at modernizing USSR, separating party and state ▪ hardline Stalinists on the right ▪ critiques from liberal communists on the left who want to see more modern Soviet state ▪ from communist China • Khrushchev wanted to make sure that they would never again be humiliated by the US • late 1962 – decided to pursue two-pronged strategy, pursue peaceful co-existence ◦ attend international conferences ◦ settle outstanding issues ◦ lying low in third world, not overtly support revolutionary wars ◦ decided to put the program to catch up with US in twenty years in economic terms to rest; rather catch up withAmerica is military terms especially intercontinental ballistic missiles ▪ build missiles on an unprecedented scale, but had to give up economy (guns vs. butter) ▪ accounts for why the Soviet Union never came close to catching up with US in terms of standard of living – cannot have both since all their resources had to be channelled into one factor • tangible change in Kennedy's attitude – completely changed in terms of IR in general and USSR in particular ◦ realized how close the world came to nuclear annihilation – wanted to make sure that no such conflict would result again ◦ wanted to make sure thatAmericans and Soviet Union would have better relations to avoid another such crisis • June 1963, major speech at University of Washington – assured USSR that US didn't want to achieve PaxAmericana, to show how serious he is, sent diplomat to negotiate a peace agreement on mutual terms ◦ lay down direct link between Moscow and Washington so that they could have a direct line of communication, don't have to rely on messengers ◦ teletype link, allowed bypass of messengers or diplomatic manoeuvres ◦ 1970s – satellite links established so that they could communicate immediately • Bikini Island Test 1954 – 15 megaton strong bomb, fallout affected three/four larger area, Japanese fishing boat was affected ◦ had to negotiate so that no nuclear confrontation would ever come between the two sides • Tsar Bomba 1961 – 50 megatons, destroyed every building within a 1000 km radius • meant that there was no limit to the confrontation, did not bode well for human kind • Limited Nuclear Test Ban TreatyAugust 1963 ◦ all three parties (US/UK/USSR) agreed to limit nuclear tests – out of space and underwater ◦ ensured that space would never be militarized and oceans would remain safe ◦ could not settle on underground explosions, could easily be hidden just by claiming that an earthquake took place – could not verify ◦ Americans wanted 7-10 yearly inspections, Khrushchev only wanted 3 ◦ nonetheless, major step forward in reducing tensions ◦ from then on, from 1963-72 negotiations were going on all the time ▪ US agreed to grain sale to USSR – starting from October they could buy grain from US • however, November 1963 Kennedy was assassinated, Johnson took over ◦ peripheral issues interfered – Vietnam ◦ did not pit two sides against each other, but both sides had to come to the aid of the two sides – issue of China ◦ Soviet Union had to come to the aid of Vietnam because of situation in China – still willing and capable of defending a communist state ◦ Middle East – 1967, Arab-Israeli War, both sides took opposing sides ◦ could not make meaningful breakthrough BUT they do come to sign an agreement saying that the outer space treaty would apply to celestial bodies as well ▪ did not have the technology, was a theoretical issue, easier to come to agreement • eventually by 1968 they sign a serious treaty, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ◦ no other state could ever have a nuclear weapon, even for peaceful means ◦ agreed to limit nuclear technology, know-how of how to produce nuclear weapons • Johnson never agreed to face-to-face meeting with his counterpart ◦ understood now that they could never win the war in Vietnam – the entire war painted US in a terrible light • by 1970 Soviet Union reached nuclear parity with the US ◦ limit number of missiles – both sides already had 1100 missiles ◦ from 1972 they agreed for the first time some aspects to be limited – promise to all other non-nuclear powers ◦ Americans and Soviets recognized that they had to show that they cared about the world (unfair to make other states not have nuclear weapons) • emergence of China and multi-polar state system ◦ Sino-Soviet split – very serious disagreement between the two states, what policy to follow ▪ China wanted United Front, but not with the Soviet Union leading, especially if leader is not even a true revolutionary ◦ non-aligned world – a third of the world joined the bloc, totally meaningless, could not gain enough weight to dominate international relations, were exposed to Soviet and US influence, could never fulfil its potential, not enough power ▪ completely disappeared form international affairs as a powerful bloc ▪ poor backward China could not offer support for the non-aligned world ▪ decline of Chinese influence, no one took them seriously • had to change China from within – Cultural Revolution ◦ power struggle for the direction of Chinese foreign and domestic policy ◦ ostracized China to the greatest extent ever – in the West they were still seen as Communist, unpredictable, brutal; in the East they were seen as unreliable ◦ China had to come to terms withAmerica since couldn't come to terms with Soviets ▪ had to look for an ally to balance out their weakness against Soviets ▪ Kissinger – it is stupid of theAmericans not to use the China card ◦ Americans still don't like the Chinese, but in international terms to challenge and oppose the Soviet Union China offered the best opportunity • 1972 – Nixon visits China and undersigns one of the greatest diplomatic breakthroughs ◦ five basic principal points ▪ recognized that there was only one China – Taiwan is not China (had to be reunited with Communist China) ▪ Americans agreed to pull out their forces from Vietnam and China ▪ hold back Japan from moving into Taiwan ▪ establish basic normal relations with one another ▪ agreed to share intelligence about Soviet Union and limited military aid • China emerges finally as a power, creating a multi-polar world system and establishin
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