PHL246H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Dutch Book, Bayesian Inference, Rudolf Carnap
Document Summary
Bayesian confirmation theory developed out carnap"s notion of confirmation and his project (as well as others) to come up with a notion of probability that is logical in nature. In this project of carnap and keynes to define probability in purely syntactical notions is considered to have failed these days. Hempel"s work (which was taken to show that the theory was unacceptable). But even in that book he was of this opinion that this range of admissible prob. functions can be specified in purely probability terms. It was only after goodman published his book fact fiction and forecast that they thought this entire idea was misguided. They thought probabilities = subjective degrees of belief of an ideal doxastic agent. Subjectivists: not every, but at least many probability functions are admissible degree of belief functions. Probabilisim: all and only probabilities are rational degrees of belief functions.
