Evaluative vs descriptive
Descriptive: what is and what isn’t.
Supervenience thesis: if the descriptive cases are identical so does the evaluative
property—come to same conclusion on the evaluation.
Pg 44: Bel (p) Ev (p) > Ev (~p) *necessary but not sufficient. You have insufficient
evidence to form belief.
Clifford’s principle is wrong when wrong means morally wrong action. But Clifford’s
principle might be right when it’s restricted to belief from evidential point (?)
Pg 45: Releveance: increase of belief
Huber: ought Bel (p) Ev (p) > r [threshold]
Bel (p)---- Bel (~p)= DisB (p)---Susp (p,~p)
Bel (p) Ev (p) > r
You should believe something just in case that the degrees of belief are high.
Bel (p) Degree of Bel (p) > .95
For any number < 1, we have an inconsistent sense of beliefs, if we form beliefs
based on high probabilities. Paradox
Lottery :100 tickets. Pr (1v2v…100)=1.Pr(n)= 0.01. Pr (17)=0.01. Pr (~17)=0.99
Bel (~n) > Bel (~a) & Be