POL101Y1 Lecture Notes - Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, Neoliberalism, Complex Interdependence

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Nov 19 Lecture
THE RISE OF GREAT POWERS
Democratic peace theory: democracies don’t fight one another
Theory has a pretty good track record (generally speaking)
Democracies are often allies, shared ideological affiminities, tend to be slow
(long decision making time)
Not very good at theory: did not predict end of the cold war
General characteristic of IR is uncertainty: live in an age of extraordinary
uncertainty, yet on the other hand as a dicispline we try to predict why and
how countries behave in the ways in which they do
Taiwan: tiny island on south-east coast of china
- lots of missiles pointed against Taiwan, no one knows how many, 800-
1500 (?)
- 14th largest trading company in the world
- one of the richest areas in Asia
- a democracy
- interesting history
- Taiwan, Republic of China
- During cold war republic not recognized internationally
- Instead recognized Taiwan, republic of china, government in exile
- 1970s: china begins to rise and normalize relationships with the west
(US)
- government of Taiwan therefore not legitimate (legally speaking now a
province of china)
- in reality its an independent state: only government, economy, military,
etc yet it is not a country
- De jure chinese province
- De facto independent state
- 1996 missile crisis
- 2005 Anti-Secession Law: should Taiwan declare independence, China
will use force
- 2010 Arms Procurement Bill: Taiwan signing with US for protection if
attacked
- important that US has relationship with Taiwan
- Taiwan has faith that Us will protect them if attacked (both are
democracies!)
- Tremendous uncertainty: we don’t know how China/ Taiwan/ USA will
act
- People of Taiwan were not worried until the 1990’s and China becomes a
factor (after it had risen)
China’s Rise: What We Know
China is an economic superpower
Enormous stocks of hard power: military power and capability
Active military personnel- 1.5:1 (PCR:US)
Land-based weapons- 1:1
Naval ships 1:2
Defense spending 1:8
Available military personnel 5:1
We know China is a growing military power!
China has a lot of soft power: ability of a country to influence another country
without use of military
Investment: one of the largest investors, buying influence in much of the
developing world by investing capital and foreign exchange
Energy security: relies on imports of energy security from around the world-
> one of key targets is Canada, increasingly investing in our natural resources
and energy stock
Soft power is also about people wanting to be like you: Beijing Consensus->
see increasing cultural power, chinese culture part of mainstream culture,
People want to learn chinese, eat chinese food, etc
USA used to have much of this soft power
Over last few decades, USA soft power in decline, China on the rise
**China military power, economic power, soft power, perception that
America is in decline
Key point: China’s rise is amidst America’s decline
Presumption that as China continues to rise and America continues to
decline, we may be a complete transformation of the entire international
system
Canada Attitudes
43% see China as an economic poorutnity
60% see China as a military threat in the Asia-Pacific region
66% of canadicans think in the next ten years China will surpass US as a
greater influence
The International System
Sovereignty- Treaty of Westphalia, defines our borders, gives our
government ability to tax and raise military, country’s have to respect our
borders by virtue of the principal of sovereignty
Power and the distribution of power
- economic
- military
- soft
- etc
- ability to influence others
- threats
- distribution of power that really matters (especially in our system)
- key tensions: all states equal in regards to sovereignty, yet, distribution of
power is unequal in international system
Anarchic international system
- there is no global government
- no international police force or taxation system
- no global state that governs the entire world
- therefore then, our loyalties are not to this world but to our nation states
and countries
- our international system is a state-centric system that functions in the
absence of world government
** Taking these three together, the best we can hope for is order. We can’t have
global government, rule of law. The best we can achieve is order. One way we can be
successful in this order is RESPECTING SOVEREIGNTY.
** But, this order is fragile. Even when we say and by large respect each other’s
sovereignty, that system of order is fragile.
** What does the rise in china mean in terms of order? What are the implications of
China’s rise on the international system? -> We don’t know, Run through
possibilities is best we can do.
Scenario 1: US Hegemony
“Hegemony, total and utter domination” Shaquille O’Neal
End of cold war: Pax Americano, USA dominated the world
Military and economic hegemony of the USA
As a result of this, USA was the global rule-maker
International system: American dominance, USA could shape international
order essentially (ex: United nations, world bank, IMF)
Even if USA had no support it could go on its own
Benevolent dominance: don’t mean to be dominant but rather a benevolent
dominance, consumers, consumed global markets, technological advances ($
put in), providing public goods for the rest of the world
Hegemonic stability theory: during period of American hegemony, we had
tremendous order and stability, international order and stability a reflection
of the hegemonic power and that no one wants to challenge it-> they want to
benefit from it
Realism international relations theory: order is the anarchic world can be
facilitated by a hegemony
Realism
realist IR theory: there are 4 key assumptions
(1) International relations governed by an international system