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POL101Y1 Lecture Notes - Beijing Consensus, Hard Power, De Facto

Political Science
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Nov. 22/2010
Making Sense of the Rise of China: International Relations Theory and
Uncertain Relations
*Essay question will be on international relations (this lecture & the next 2)
Democracies do not fight democracies:
Tend to be normatively alike, in alliance together, pursue diplomatic channels of
conflict resolution, tend to be liberal economies centered on foreign trade, tend to be
relatively slow & take a long time to make decisions
International Relations Theory: Tries to explain state or country behaviour, why do
countries behave in the ways that they do
Taiwan, Republic of China
De Jure Chinese province
Taiwan is no longer a legitimate country, & Taiwan loses its sovereignty (its an
illegitimate government)
Taiwan is a democracy, has its governments, laws, & elections
Functions & looks like a state, but isnt legally a state
By the level of the law, Taiwan is a province of China
Any movements for independence, angers China
De facto independent state
U.S will protect Taiwan if it were to be attacked by China
China & the U.S are constantly engaged in this conflict
1996 Missile Crisis
China launched missiles on Taiwan
2005 Anti-Secession Law
If Taiwan declares independence, they will be attacked by China
2010 Arms Procurement Bill
U.S sold military arms to Taiwan; while saying we love you China
The world did not recognize communist China during the Cold War, but it did
recognize the national government in Taiwan as legitimate

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China begins to normalize relations with the United States
Taiwan is of strategic importance to China; its a natural aircraft carrier (perfect
place to put an airbase)
Taiwanese say that China will not attack because Taiwan is protected by the U.S
The key point here is uncertainty: We do not know how China will react Will they
attack Taiwan? How will Taiwan react? Will they maintain the status quo as an
illegitimate country? How will the U.S react?
If anything happens to Taiwan, the U.S will by law have to move in
Chinas Rise: What We Know
(I) Chinas Economic Rise
We do know some things for certain: Chinas rise is a function of its economic rise
(matter of time before it becomes the largest economy in the world)
(II) Hard Power
2nd largest military spender in the world
China is a nuclear power
In terms of active military personnel the size of its active personnel is 50% greater
than the U.S
Lagging in terms of the navy, but is working on naval ships
If China got serious and mobilized its population, the # of soldiers is 5 times greater
than that of the U.S
(III) Soft Power (Influence)
Investing money into the developing world (in particular Africa) to extract natural
resources for energy commodities (energy security)
Developing countries buying into the Chinese model
Beijing Consensus
China possesses a cultural power (people want to learn about China)
Correlates with decline of American power (American power is spread thinly,
economy has taken a huge hit)
People are saying that the American economy is in decline
China is a better functioning economy than the U.S
Western influence in developing countries will diminish
The rise of Chinas economy (hard power), increasing soft power, & Americas
decline is of a potential transformative mode
The International SYSTEM
Made of 3 core principles:
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