POL101Y1 Lecture Notes - Larry Diamond, Impermanence, Economic Collapse

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Published on 14 Apr 2013
School
UTSG
Department
Political Science
Course
POL101Y1
Professor
Authoritarian Impermanence?
Prepared by Conrad Koczorowski, TA
Authoritarian Impermanence by Andrew J. Nathan
According to Nathan,
Chinese “democratic
transition” would not /
could not resemble the
Soviet Union’s or Taiwan’s.
Why?
Soviet Union
- Not in an arms race that it cannot afford
- Not overextended in a security rivalry with the U.S.
- Minority populations are not more than half
- Not constitutionally structured as a federation whose
units have the right to secede (withdraw)
Taiwan
- Does not need to integrate a previously excluded ethnic
majority
- Not permitted the formation of an organized opposition
or trained the populace in competitive elections
- Country is not a dependency of the U.S.
Why?
- The regime is willing to change in any way that helps it to
stay in power, but is unwilling to relax the ban on
autonomous political forces
The most likely scenario
will involve three factors
coming together. What are
these three factors?
What do you think of these
three factors?
Are these “structural”? Or
“agent”-based?
1. A robust plurality of disaffected citizens
2. Catalytic event that sends a signal to scattered social
forces that the time has come to rise up most structural
a. Economic collapse
b. Large military lost
3. A split in the leadership
- People are not likely to rise up and over through
- People have accepted the regime
- Large civil society emerging (anti-regime goals) = robust
plurality of disaffected citizens
- Structural emended in the institutions
- Agent where an individual can alter the direction of
history, despite the fact that structures might be going
another way
Keeping in mind the three
factors hypothesized by
Nathan, how does China
- The fact that the regime considers itself vulnerable to just
such a scenario is evidenced by the massive efforts that it
makes to prevent these three elements from emerging
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Document Summary

Chinese democratic transition would not / could not resemble the. Not in an arms race that it cannot afford. Not overextended in a security rivalry with the u. s. Minority populations are not more than half. Not constitutionally structured as a federation whose units have the right to secede (withdraw) Does not need to integrate a previously excluded ethnic majority. Not permitted the formation of an organized opposition or trained the populace in competitive elections. Country is not a dependency of the u. s. People are not likely to rise up and over through. Large civil society emerging (anti-regime goals) = robust plurality of disaffected citizens. Agent where an individual can alter the direction of history, despite the fact that structures might be going another way. The most likely scenario will involve three factors coming together. Keeping in mind the three factors hypothesized by.

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