POL101Y1 Lecture Notes - Cholera, Spirit Caravan, William Farr

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Published on 17 Apr 2013
School
UTSG
Department
Political Science
Course
POL101Y1
Professor
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POL101 NOTES FROM MARCH 25, 2013
LECTURE: UNCERTAINTY AND POLITICS: ELUSIVE TRUTH IN A UNCERTAIN WORLD
Politics in irregular times: invoke the principal of science (irrefutable truth)
Tell that truth: in London Cholera a lot died thus how to stop: this is a disaster, how to stop,
uncertainty not responding William Farr more are dying by fog
Politics is about learning from the past
Global Finance: VAR (value at risk) model: type of risk analysis that expresses risk as a number that
measures the confidence of the market allowing systematic equilibrium.
Sense of trends but is this accurate in measuring panic (no) thus it is about uncertainty as the
future is uncertain
If it is assumed about uncertainty:
1. Politics: make votes and decisions today for tomorrow. The aging society: uncertain about
how much more costly. Financial regulation, which is a flawed model, but do we change it.
Preventive health care: invest because means less sick. SARS: no spike capacity
2. Risk and Politics: problem of uncertain outcomes thus characteristics are unknown. Risk is
probability distribution: when will we die and reasonableness. The normal distribution cure: tails
are improbable but what to do: nuclear program in CA (Atomic Energy Co. Ltd.) after war seen
as good but Chernobyl occurs and now focus on safety. 80/90 had risk analysis thus store
3. Mitigating Risks: tech risk analysis should we store: tails (black swans) high impact but low
probability. We rely on government for future risks but it comes with cost. Will we pay?
Theory in Political Science: about uncertainty: is there truth in it? It is used to describe & explain political
phenomenon. For predicting and making arguments on which theory is right.
Ex: markets are efficient are society produces thus equity: democratic mobility of the excluded
(equity)
Should we see less welfare: race to the bottom: growing levels of inequality but Taiwan and S Korea
have universal health care
The End of History: a theory but the problem is that it is present description: gives satisfaction but bane
of progress
We look forward by looking back: Fukuyama believed that we would return to Marx: future of a global
capitalism. Problems: tolerate loser but to what extent and what kind, when unfair Fukuyama does not
tell of losers
Bear Witness: end of history doesn’t tell on how to make live. We have surplus population, grey income,
and invisible people
IS there truths in Political science: no: a lot to learn and need modes, what we do is argue, perceive
world and believe it can be better.

Document Summary

Lecture: uncertainty and politics: elusive truth in a uncertain world. Politics in irregular times: invoke the principal of science (irrefutable truth) Tell that truth: in london cholera a lot died thus how to stop: this is a disaster, how to stop, uncertainty not responding william farr more are dying by fog. Global finance: var (value at risk) model: type of risk analysis that expresses risk as a number that measures the confidence of the market allowing systematic equilibrium. Sense of trends but is this accurate in measuring panic (no) thus it is about uncertainty as the future is uncertain. If it is assumed about uncertainty: politics: make votes and decisions today for tomorrow. The aging society: uncertain about how much more costly. Financial regulation, which is a flawed model, but do we change it. Preventive health care: invest because means less sick. Sars: no spike capacity: risk and politics: problem of uncertain outcomes thus characteristics are unknown.