Turnout, Demographics, and Public Opinion
things we can take out of the state of the union
1.A change in the agenda
2.A framework for compromise
3.A more specific framework for a tit for tat spending on taxes.
The impacts on elections
•How the primaries, how the electoral college and presdential college takes place
•Talk about aspects of the elections of the us: States control all election laws… then
move to another set of impacts..
•Early impact is essential to winning primaries, early impact is crucial to also
winning the primaries. This gives a huge edge to candidates who have money coming
into the race either there own money or money collected through campaigning,
candidates that have an effective organization in place and candidates who have a
media profile and that can generate media attention. Obama is prime example of the
•It gives an edge to incumbents because they find it easier to raise contributions,
raise revenue and usually have organizations set up from the previous elections and
have easier access to the media. That’s true with both presidential primaries
•Incumbents have a huge edge in congressional races because they have all these
organizations and tools set up
•In the primaries you need to get the votes of single issued people, the hard line
people etc, that’s different then the promises in the general elections because then you
are running to get moderate votes.
•With congressional candidates, they need the attention from the media etc when
there is competition during running in there district or state.
The electoral College
•The electoral college has another set of effects and that’s on the range of issues that
get heard and the place of states in national elections. The framers realized that the
federal/presidential elections are going to be about national issues. But they wanted
local issues and concerns to be on the table as well. This would happen more naturally
in congressional races. They wanted presidential candidates to pay attention to state
and local concerns and the electoral college was a way of achieving that
•It forced presidential candidates to not only form majorities in the popular votes but
also in states. Some majority of states have different issues, concerns and interests.
This again pushes towards coalition building. Big states would get particular attention
from presidential candidates because they have more representation in the electoral
college but small states could achieve a bigger weight in the electoral college so they
could fight for there issues as well.