Lecture November 24 Terrorism
North and South Korea
- International crisis: South Korea, China, US, Japan and Russia
- High threat, surprise, lack of time to make decisions
- Reasons for attack? (3 images)
- Failure? (rationality, rationality of irrationality)
- South Korea calls for ³enormous retaliation´
- Nuclear North Korea?
- Where do we go from here? Trend in the last 2 decades, NK gets aggressive and initiates
a crisis and receives concessions then backs off, then starts again. Potential world war²
world wars begin with seemingly trivial events.
- Control stockpiles of nuclear weapons from the cold war. Agreement between Russia and
- Republicans try to block the START treaty
- START commits US and Russia to cut deployed nuclear weapons by 30%. No more than
1550 in seven years. Includes verification measures
Do we need a grand strategy?
- US administration not enough foreign policy strategy.
- Nuclear disarmament and Israeli settlements
- Is there an Obama doctrine? ± Jackson Diehl
- Democratic peace theory- very few politicians understand it.
- Condeleeza rice ± why promoting freedom is the only realistic path to security
- CR- character regimes matters more than the international distribution of power. Create
a world of democratic, well governed states to meet the needs of citizens and conduct
themselves properly in the international system (liberal point of view). Security interests
and democratic ideals. Support for democratic institutions (liberal). Not idealism-
restates liberalism while attacking realism. Democracy is the only assurance of lasting
peace and only guarantee of freedom. Democracies don¶t go to war with each other. CR
suggests democracy is necessary for peace. Democratic peace theory: democracy is
SUFFICIENT condition for peace if both democratic countries are unlikely to fight. CR
no point in negotiation with the other side if they¶re not democratic. Stability without
democracy will prove to be a false start
- Dyadic phenomena
- Strong correlation; causal mechanism? (institutional or normative cultural