Lecture 9

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Published on 7 Feb 2011
School
UTSG
Department
Political Science
Course
POL208Y1
Professor
POL208Y Lecture
November 16th, 2010
Contemporary Conflict
If Poland wanted to move towards a different system, Gorbachevs Red Army would
no longer intervene in the monitoring of satellites
Germany was keen to take gorbachevs words at face value
Ration in US was slightly different; the head of the CIA at the time (Robert Gate?)
was doubtful that gorbachev would succeed in reforming the soviet union
oLikely CIA scenario was that more reformed gorbachev wanted to change
things, and would be ousted by a coup
oCia believed that the soviet conservatives would remove gorbachev from
power after a short period of time
oThey began to take G seriously after the berlin wall fell in 1989
oIn the 70s it was a time where the US and the soviet union negotiated the
first arms control treaties; only to find out soviet union cheated on treaties
(expanded its military influence in Afghanistan)
othey largely imposed American terms at the end of the cold war
either Germany was out of NATO, or east Germany was given a
special status
US wanted to show that they had indeed won the cold war
USSR was not happy
End of cold war was a divine surprise
Key element of cold war was peace; no shots fired for the most part
First impact of cold war was peace dividend; defense budgets were
drastically slashed and the number of troops in Europe was cut by at
least half; arms productions were reduced
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Cars were built instead of tanks
A transformation after cold war was military reformation
oConscription abolished (only under circumstances of defense in the face of
annihilation)
Professionalization of the army for the most part
Few states still rely on conscription
The tension in some eastern countries began to rise dramatically following the cold
war
In one instances this tension became a BLOODY conflict
oDuh case uv bossnia, started in 1992, was a reminder that the end of the cold
war was a rise of other problems
oKey question in the early 1990s was, is war as an instrument of foreign policy
obsolete?
oYugoslavia started to become engaged in an endless, civil war
oOn the other side of the world, Saddamn Hussein invaded Kuwait
oDus de nature of contemporary conflict differ than modern classic warfare?
oThe definitition of warfare is the organized violence of a state ___?
oWar in de history of modern Europe has been a phenomenon tat largely
shaped and built the state itself; war made the modern state and state made
the modern war
oVery few countries in Europe emerged without a conflict
oThe map of Europe is the result of wars
oNo way is one of exception
The state in Africa has largely been an artificial import from European coloniztions
Intervention, even under the NATO flag in countries like sierra leonne and the
congo were linked to humanitarian concerns; not western interests
Is there something fundamentally new about the conduct of war today, and if so, why
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is it like this?
oCan we talk about post-modern war today? Yes and no.
oCivil Wars in former Yugoslavia
As early as 1991, the relationship between Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia
and bosnia began to crumble
Concern of Europeans were largely Unitarian
It was a shock to everyone that 2 hours away from berlin or paris,
actual fighting took place
Resurgence of war came as a shock
European powers largely disagreed on what to do
Disagreed because they had different stakes in the region
Germany was keen to recognize the idnependece of Croatia and
Slovenia
France refused to see a change of borders in Europe by force; if a new
border is to be created, we need a treaty. It must be done with peace
France did not recognize the partition of ex-yugoslavia
For them, Yugoslavia remained the key relevant unit
The refusal to see both its change inside Yugoslavia meant that
for France, the key ally was Serbia
The Brits had another take on the conflict, and it was largely
an American view which is that this civil war is so complex; the
ethnic complexion is so prominent that foreign powers cannot
bring any solution to it
Armed intervention will not solve the problem
The US in 1991-92 was simply not interested in the conflict
As one European power famously said: this was the hour of
Europe; and what a failure it was
The only point of agreement between European states was
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Document Summary

 us wanted to show that they had indeed won the cold war.  end of cold war was a divine surprise.  key element of cold war was peace; no shots fired for the most part.  professionalization of the army for the most part.  few states still rely on conscription: the tension in some eastern countries began to rise dramatically following the cold war. Intervention, even under the nato flag in countries like sierra leonne and the congo were linked to humanitarian concerns; not western interests. Yes and no: civil wars in former yugoslavia.  as early as 1991, the relationship between serbia, croatia, slovenia and bosnia began to crumble. I t was a shock to everyone that 2 hours away from berlin or paris, actual fighting took place.  resurgence of war came as a shock.  european powers largely disagreed on what to do.  disagreed because they had different stakes in the region.