POL222H1 Lecture 2: Lecture 2

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19 Jan 2020
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Tentative conjecture about the causes of some phenomenon of interest. Theory-based statement about a relationship we expect to observe. Process in which scientists evaluate the empirical evidence systematically to see whether the evidence favors their hypothesis. Theory: described in terms of abstract concepts. Hypothesis: transformed abstract theory into a concrete statement testable with actual data (observable in real world) Operationalization: transform abstract concept into something observable or measurable. Real gdp growth government party"s vote share (hypothesis) Economic performance real gdp growth (operationalization) If we expect to observe our theory was incorrect, the theory must be falsifiable. Falsifiable: capable of being verified or falsified by empirical tests. Theory should give a clear expectation about what to expect if theory was incorrect. Know in advance what empirical evidence contradicts our theory. Real gdp growth --(hypothesis)--> government party"s vote share. How to test theory of economic voting.

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