POL 380 -March 8th lecture.doc

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9 Apr 2012

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POL 380 H –March 8th
If you want to design a peace cooperation, it’s better to understand what are the
motivations, what are the reasons for fighting and what are the obstacles to peace?
Anarchy—use of violence because it is a security dilemma. When you have
uncertainty and a government collapse and a defensive collapse, security dilemma.
Push intention—not what happened in Bosnia. He wanted war and he wanted conflict.
Food was distributed for every inhabitant in that city, regardless of their ethnicity. The
logic of security + the ethnic. It was shared by the Serbs a lot. One city was in siege
because of revenge.
Other scholars have introduced the misconception factor: a group may not have the
right information about the strength of the other. There is no adequate reading about
the balance of force—CRUCIAL. (because they still think they can win)
That information might be: “Stop fighting, you’re not going to win.”
The ethnic dimension of a civil war explains why in some instances the only way to
move forward is through partition. Ethnicity is a pre-merger affiliation—that
dimension is NOT flexible. The consequence will be around that factor.
Ethnic fragmentation does not increase the risk of war. BUT it might make a civil war
last longer.
The question of ethnicity is most dangerous when manipulating. Ethnicity is an end of
a means—leads to violence.
If ethnicity were a primordial issue to conflict, no one would be able to live together.
Yugoslavia’s cultural has been ethnically cleansed. Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of
the only states is multi-ethnical. However, no one in B&H believes in the state.
Politicians have been manipulating the expectation of their citizens
Survival is at stake: as an international peacekeeper.
Ethnic factor is difficult to assess.
For each individual, there is a trade off with productive effort on one end and
appropriate economic behavior on the other
Last explanation of civil war: external factors: international factors
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