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Nov 19 Lecture.docx

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
Jeffrey Kopstein

Nov 19 Lecture THE RISE OF GREAT POWERS  Democratic peace theory: democracies don’t fight one another  Theory has a pretty good track record (generally speaking)  Democracies are often allies, shared ideological affiminities, tend to be slow (long decision making time)  Not very good at theory: did not predict end of the cold war  General characteristic of IR is uncertainty: live in an age of extraordinary uncertainty, yet on the other hand as a dicispline we try to predict why and how countries behave in the ways in which they do  Taiwan: tiny island on south-east coast of china - lots of missiles pointed against Taiwan, no one knows how many, 800- 15th (?) - 14 largest trading company in the world - one of the richest areas in Asia - a democracy - interesting history - Taiwan, Republic of China - During cold war republic not recognized internationally - Instead recognized Taiwan, republic of china, government in exile - 1970s: china begins to rise and normalize relationships with the west (US) - government of Taiwan therefore not legitimate (legally speaking now a province of china) - in reality its an independent state: only government, economy, military, etc yet it is not a country - De jure chinese province - De facto independent state - 1996 missile crisis - 2005 Anti-Secession Law: should Taiwan declare independence, China will use force - 2010 Arms Procurement Bill: Taiwan signing with US for protection if attacked - important that US has relationship with Taiwan - Taiwan has faith that Us will protect them if attacked (both are democracies!) - Tremendous uncertainty: we don’t know how China/ Taiwan/ USA will act - People of Taiwan were not worried until the 1990’s and China becomes a factor (after it had risen) China’s Rise: What We Know  China is an economic superpower  Enormous stocks of hard power: military power and capability  Active military personnel- 1.5:1 (PCR:US)  Land-based weapons- 1:1  Naval ships 1:2  Defense spending 1:8  Available military personnel 5:1  We know China is a growing military power!  China has a lot of soft power: ability of a country to influence another country without use of military  Investment: one of the largest investors, buying influence in much of the developing world by investing capital and foreign exchange  Energy security: relies on imports of energy security from around the world- > one of key targets is Canada, increasingly investing in our natural resources and energy stock  Soft power is also about people wanting to be like you: Beijing Consensus-> see increasing cultural power, chinese culture part of mainstream culture,  People want to learn chinese, eat chinese food, etc  USA used to have much of this soft power  Over last few decades, USA soft power in decline, China on the rise  **China military power, economic power, soft power, perception that America is in decline  Key point: China’s rise is amidst America’s decline  Presumption that as China continues to rise and America continues to decline, we may be a complete transformation of the entire international system Canada Attitudes  43% see China as an economic poorutnity  60% see China as a military threat in the Asia-Pacific region  66% of canadicans think in the next ten years China will surpass US as a greater influence The International System  Sovereignty- Treaty of Westphalia, defines our borders, gives our government ability to tax and raise military, country’s have to respect our borders by virtue of the principal of sovereignty  Power and the distribution of power - economic - military - soft - etc - ability to influence others - threats - distribution of power that really matters (especially in our system) - key tensions: all states equal in regards to sovereignty, yet, distribution of power is unequal in international system  Anarchic international system - there is no global government - no international police force or taxation system - no global state that governs the entire world - therefore then, our loyalties are not to this world but to our nation states and countries - our international system is a state-centric system that functions in the absence of world government ** Taking these three together, the best we can hope for is order. We can’t have global government, rule of law. The best we can achieve is order. One way we can be successful in this order is RESPECTING SOVEREIGNTY. ** But, this order is fragile. Even when we say and by large respect each other’s sovereignty, that system of order is fragile. ** What does the rise in china mean in terms of order? What are the implications of China’s rise on the international system? -> We don’t know, Run through possibilities is best we can do. Scenario 1: US Hegemony “Hegemony, total and utter domination” Shaquille O’Neal  End of cold war: Pax Americano, USA dominated the world  Military and economic hegemony of the USA  As a result of this, USA was the global rule-maker  International system: American dominance, USA could shape interna
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