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The Rise of Great Powers.docx

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
Jeffrey Kopstein

Political Science Lecture November 21 , 2011 st The Rise of Great Powers- Prof. Wong political science is built upon theory, the ability to predict how states will behave we generalize prevailing theory: Democratic peace theory in international relations, deals with conflict and peace theory: democracies don’t fight other democracies democracies share ideological affinity democracies take a long time to decide to go to war Political science cannot always predict, no one predicted the end of the cold war politics is inherently uncertain, there is a great degree of uncertainty in the way in which states behave we attempt to explain why and how states behave the way they do The case of Taiwan, Southeast coast of China, China has 800-1500 missiles pointed at it at all times from China 1920s-1930s, China in civil war, Chinese Nationalist Party vs. Chinese Communist Party Taiwan, Republic of China [De Jure Chinese province] Taiwan is not independent, China claims to own Taiwan although Taiwan is an independent state De Facto independent state- Taiwan has its own economy, democracy, currency, military, etc. SO though Taiwan is not recognized as an independent state, it acts like one (it is a Chinese province) Taiwan Relations Act, America will defend Taiwan if it is ever attacked by China (this pisses off China, Taiwan is supposed to be its province) 1996 Missile crisis, Taiwan wanted to elect a president, China then missiled Taiwan to scare them Anti-Secession Law: If Taiwan is to declare independence, China will attack 2010 Arms Procurement Bill Taiwan has enough military forces to protect themselves for 3 days Taiwan is a strategic asset to America and America will protect Taiwan for they are a democracy Taiwan was not worried about China until the 1990s, China became a concern after it had risen China’s economic rise in the 1990s market-based economic reforms What we know: Hard Power hard military power, second largest in the world they have nuclear power land based artillery, EQUAL to America naval ships 1:2 – China:America Defence spending 1:8- China:America Available military personnel 5:1 – China: America Soft Power its influence is growing  Chinese investment (ex. In Africa $4.4 billion) energy security Beijing Consensus, people want to be China, its influence has spread The Interna
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