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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
Jeffrey Kopstein

Political Science 9/12/2012 1:33:00 PM Reading: Criteria for Assessing Electoral Systems - The choice of an electoral system hinges in two sets of judgments:  Empirical judgments – about the likely consequences of the various options  Normative judgments – about how “good” or “bad”, and “important” or “trivial” these consequences are. - Why do we believe it is a “good” thing that legislators be chosen by the people in a fair and honest election? What are the benefits of democratic elections? What conditions must be fulfilled for these goals to be achieved? These conditions help us to specify criteria from assessin`g electoral systems. Electoral system: the set of rules which govern the process by which citizens‟ opinions about the candidates and parties are expressed in votes and by which these votes are thereafter translated into the designation of decision makers. - An electoral system comprises the constituency structure (how many representatives are to be elected in each constituency?) the ballot structure (how are electors supposed to express their opinions?) and the electoral formula (what conditions must be fulfilled in order to be elected?). What should elections accomplish? – policies are more likely to reflect the views of the majority and conflict is more likely to be dealt with peacefully in a democracy  Holding of elections increases legislators‟ sensitivity to public opinion and that, as a consequence, there will be congruence between what citizens want and what governments do 1 criterion - How and why is this congruence supposed to occur? st  1 mechanism = accountability : if politicians attempt to maximize that probability of being elected they will propose policies that correspond to the views of the greatest amount of electors and then implement these policies if they are elected for the probability of being re-elected. Legislators are free to do what they want yet they may not be re-elected.. nd  2 mechanism = representation by reflection: if electors vote for candidates who best represent their views, the legislature will likely reflect the overall distribution of viewpoints in society. Therefore decisions legislators would make should resemble those that citizens would have made in direct democracy 2nd criterion – Does it produce legislatures and governments that are broadly representative of the electorate?  elections allow citizens to resolve their conflicts peacefully.  Why / under what conditions do losers peacefully accept the outcomes of the election – three main reasons o because they believe that some basic rights will not be infringed upon by the government (charter of rights) o because they believe tat even though they may have lost this time they will win another time o because even though they do not like the outcome, they recognize that the procedure is legitimate 3rd criterion – Does the electoral system produce legislatures and governments that are systematically biased against certain groups or interests? (criterion fairness)  losers in an election may finally accept the outcome because they perceive the electoral procedure to be legitimate. But what makes the election device legitimate? Each vote should count the same  each person should have equal rights 4th criterion – does each vote count equally? (accountability, representativeness, fairness, and equality) Reviewing the debate on electoral systems: 5thcriterion – does the electoral system produce legislatures and governments that are both effective and accommodating?  There is a tension between effectiveness and accommodation. A government that is effective gets out to implement the policies it had advocated during the election campaign. A government that seeks accommodation will consult widely before making final decisions and will look for compromises that will be acceptable to as many groups as possible. These objectives are partly contradictory. It seems to me that most people want to prevent extreme ineffectiveness and complete absence of accommodation th 6 criterion – Does the electoral system produce relatively strong parties and relatively strong representatives  we want strong parties and parties are meaningless if they are not cohesive  we do not want parties to be too strong.  Want representatives to be sensitive to out concerns 7thcriterion – is the vote both simple enough and a relatively precise reflection of citizens‟ preferences?  The more precisely voters are allowed to express their views on the ballot, the greater the likelihood that what governments do will reflect what citizens want. My reading of the literature on electoral democracy and on the debate over electoral systems has led me to formulate the following criteria for assessing existing and proposed electoral systems: accountability, representativeness, fairness, equality, effectiveness, accommodation, party cohesion, freedom for representatives, simplicity and precision. Monday September 17 / 2012: (lecture #2) Modern Democracy  Apartheid in South Africa: one of the most inhumane political systems  Crime to have sexual relations with black people  1950 - physical and spatial segregation  1952 – all people over 16 had to have a pass to enter a white area  1954 resettlement act  Majority of population was black however white people owned most of the land and had 75% of the national income  Existed until 1994, and then blacks were able to vote, travel and live under a free society.  Democracy cannot be taken for granted;  Democracy is extremely appealing; Samuel Huntington (argues that we‟ll see a third wave of democratic transition around the world  Number of democracies increased from 46 in 1975 (29%) to 114 in 2010 (59%)  Economic growth in post war  Post war- modernization; as the world modernized, democracy becomes more appealing Democracy‟s virtue ?(1)  In democratic states.. (Aristotle)  We can organize ourselves as the people, as the sovereign, rather than in oligarchies where one person has all the power  Robert Dahl - Polyarchy is a political order in which citizenship is extended to a relatively high proportion of adults, and the rights of citizenship include the opportunity to oppose and vote out the highest officials in the government  First characteristic- liberty  Freedoms expressed in terms of rights  Liberty is mediated through institutions  Second characteristic- equality  in the political sphere we are all equal  the notion of liberalism – modern liberalism is about the individual;  rule of law- our equality is protected under the rule of law – the means by which we make decisions that these are all made by rules  ex. Constitution  democracies are the rule of law , not the rule of men  4thvirtue of democracy – pluralism = sum of liberty, equality and rule of law  democracy is about making compromises  institutionalized uncertainty – the ability to elect our representatives  in a democracy there are winners and losers – even if you are voted out you can come back to fight again   Democracy‟s fragility (2)  Democracy is fragile – many breakdowns- an equal number of democracy breakdowns that returned to democracy and that didn‟t  Democracy, even though it is appealing, in effect it is extremely fragile  Democracy as a process (3)  Democracy is relatively new  1918- white women in Canada allowed to vote  democracy is a long term evolutionary process  many fought for their rights to vote  3 important dynamics – foundation, choice of democracy, and choices we make that make democracy worth   Building democracy‟s foundation (1) o Modernization theory: theory about how societies modernize first you have economic, social and then political modernization o Economics transformation – first step is to transform your economy- start to intergrade tech into economy you would have an industrial revolution and therefore modern trading economy o Economic development: o In a traditional economy you would be a framer for your own self.. there comes a time where you become a wage earner o Aggregate economic growth –rise of middle class o Modern economic economy – large middle class o Demographic change: o According to modernization theory – urbanization occurs and therefore demographic change o Less kids, female labor market participation o Social change: o As societies modernize they become more literate o Provide more education –modern science instead of remedies o Church less and less important o Demand for political rights – o When all of this happens, then the expectation is that you would dement political rights, demand more of a say in how politics is run o The theory explains how the west developed o Democracy is inevitable – final stage of modernization - more middle class – more moderate – democracy  The Transition zone:  Middle income country  Once a country enters this middle income status they enter a democracy  Non democratic countries are either very poor or very rarely very rich  We should expect more democracy as societies modernize  Modernization theory also suggests that it also happens to social modernization  “Americans of all ages, all stations in life, and all types of disposition are forever forming associations. There are not only commercial and industrial associations in which all take part, but others of a thousand different types, religious, ,oral, serious, futile, very general and very limited..nothing in my view deserves more attention than the intellectual and moral associations of America.”  Bowling together- engaging in civil sociality  Social capital – consistently northern Italians are more satisfied with their government  Its because in the north people tend to be involved in associational life. (clubs and organizations)  Key to democracy – social capital – cultures  Democracy rests on political culture  Democratic cultures: democracy evolved in the 18 thand 19 th centuries in northwest Europe.. thus democracy has a relatively narrow base, both in time and space; and the evidence had to be produced that it is the natural form of rule for peoples outside those narrow perimeters  Democratic culture is drawn from western experiences  One of the cultural obstacles is the idea of Asian values – hierarchy over pluralism  “Chinese Confucianism”  Confucianism democracy – play with words  It is not enough to be socially modern – but you have to be culturally modern (Huntington)  “Are non western cultures hostile to democracy? Choosing democracy: (2)  South Korea – Roh Tae Woo (1987) ; chosen to be a dictator yet he chose a democracy  Decides to have elections  Chile – Pilochet (1988) brutal dictator, under Pilochet regime, economic modernization and continues to grow, so he says in 1980 that he‟s going to stay president but eventually people can decide if he should stay president  Eventually economy slows down… Chilean people don‟t want him to be president  South Africa- FW de Klerk (1989) begins to negotiate and choses to engage in constitutional reforms and SA has first democratic election  Soviet Union – Gorbachev (late 1980s) wanted to eliminate corruption. Had to choose to make these reforms  Choosing democracy – when?? o Bottom – up pressure, demands – forcing to choose alternative o International pressure – SA case, US pressure, Canadian pressure, end of cold war o Legitimacy crisis – that they are no longer viewed as legitimate by their own people.  Making democracy work: (3)  Institutions – “rules of the game” o Consequential – rules of the game are o They reflect goals o Vary among democracies  Democracy is a political game – needs rules  Therefore we impose rights and limits:  Winners and losers – the rules are consequential and are not impartial  Presidentialism and Parliamentarianism: Legislative and executive branch are separate; Obama is not part of congress In Parliament, executive branch reflects the legislative branch. We vote for a party. Not a person! Parliaments encourage coalition. Encourages working together Presidential systems = executive vs. legislative branch Parliamentary system – executive reflects legislative FPP system vs. PR system: proportional representation September 24 : Constant and the rise of liberism  fervent liberal – Benjamin Constant (considered today a conservative)  context: French revolution and its aftermath  How should free people govern themselves?  Model rejected: o Liberty of ancients:  Participatory – freedom consisted in the act of governing and being governed. Participating in government.  Direct- when questions of the day would come up, everyone would participate.  They did not have a separate body  “public” not “private” liberty – freedom of public from outside domination (public liberty) o  freedom of the community – self government  you rule yourself but you are not ruled by others  freedom is the freedom of the community as a whole  freedom is collective –  dependent upon a class of people who didn‟t engage in commerce or even work  big decisions were decisions n war  liberty of moderns;  The fundamental sense of freedom is freedom from chains, from imprisonment, from enslavement by others. The rest is extension of this sense, or else metaphor o Not so much “freedom to” as “freedom from” o Freedom is individual rather than communal  Legal protections  Limited government  Freedom is individual rather than communal  All driven by “commerce” and private property instead of war Contradictions of constant:  Modern liberty is better both than ancient liberty and pre modern “despotism” (French kings)  Moderns care more about “freedom from”  We prefer “representative” to “direct government” that just leaves us alone to be happy and get rich  BUT he hedges his bets at the end of the lecture  “the danger for modern liberty is that we…”  liberty of ancients creeps back in through modern notions of citizenship and virtue! But all great thinkers are contradictory Ancient liberty and Plato:  Plato in his last dialogue, laws, offers a (grim) prophesy, to which Constant – and perhaps all moderns –seem liable  He wrote, “impulse for the rule of many rears an unbridles pursuit of satisfying lower-order desires…temperance suffers, only to give rise to a conflicted soul, seeking what is noble that once existed but now seems blatantly lost…” Traditional Society:  Scarcity  Non market societies  Family life  Affective orientation (Athenian‟s response to loss in Sicily 0 they cried for three days)  Ascriptive roles (versus achievement) Political authority and the state:  State: a monopoly, for the use of force within a given territory  But in traditional society, no distinction between public and private authority  Authority relations based on personal dependence and love and affection  No clear lines of territorial authority  Public administration  Creation of modern state: o Taxation and system of personal retainers of “king” who competed with local lords for power. This becomes modern bureaucracy  Out of this comes the idea of “sovereignty Liberalism: four genetic features  Individualism: not family or clan  Proceduralism: rule of law, limited-constitutional bureaucracy  Markets: economic and political  Toleration: religious, ethnic, gender – relies on hypocrisy To the extent these are not present, you‟re not dealing with a liberal order Liberalism: developmental stages  Transformation (revolutionary or evolutionary break from monarchical rule)  Consolidation – exclude those social elements that threaten the new order  Inclusion: include those elements that , if mot included, will rebel against the order  Never perfected, always evolving, always new groups demanding inclusion1 October 1 , 2012:  The rise of the west and Marxism:  Twin revolutions 16 th– 19 thcenturies, agricultural and industrial  Agricultural revolution: may be hyperbole to use the word “revolution” here  Industrial revolution o Originates in 18 thcentury England o More appropriately designates as a revolution o Ex. Raw cotton processed in British factories:  1760: 2.5 million pounds  1787: 22 million pounds  1837: 366 million pounds o increase in amount of iron processed into steel in English factories o produces huge changes in domestic consumption  Consequences: o Luxuries came to be seen as mere “decencies” and decencies came to be seen as necessities o Distribution is highly uneven but now creation of middle class that had risen from manual labor to professional or entrepreneurial status.  Social results: o Capacity to produce surplus o Increasing complexity of the division of labor o New forms of social consciousness  No longer accept authority unquestioningly  Political consequences: o Demise of royal absolutism o Victory of parliament over Kings o Selection of leaders by election o Rise of political parties o Universal rights without reference to class o Need to accommodate new groups within politics  Marx? o How to analyze a society? o What does one look for first? o Queens and kings> o Dominant ideas?  Marx and Materialism o Feuerbach and Critique of German idealism (Hegel) o Materialism: what is god?  God did not create men, men created god  But MARX: this doesn‟t go far enough  To change the world you have to understand what drives the world  Why do we even need religion? Injustice, you must go to the material causes o Critique of Hegel: historical Materialism  Hegel: consciousness creates society  Marx disagrees: consciousness does not create being, being creates consciousness  Leads Marx to Materialist conception of history o Materialistic Conception of history  Humans make their own means of survival  Work is natural, humans are creative  History is history of class struggle and forms of domination: history is struggle, but material struggle (Hegel said it was the struggle between ideas)  Culture, ideas, art, law, morality, religion..all determined by the mode of production: “superstructure.” o Critique of Hegel: Historical Materialism  Slave, feudal, capitalist, socialist / communist, modes of productions.  For Marx, history moves from one stage to th next: like Hegel, it has meaning, movement and and END! But its materialistic o How does history unfold?  Exploitation  New classes grab power for their particular interest but claim it is in the universal interest  They create an ideology and exercise state power. The state is nothing more than executive committee of ruling class  But they too, exploit labor and eventually their powers is brought into question  If history is the history of class struggle, it only ends when class struggle ends  When does this come about?  Marx‟s analysis of social orders: feudalism to capitalism and then his analysis of capitalism  Immiseration and class consciousness o Story of capitalism:  Feudal society: two classes, nobles and peasantry  Rise of new classes (bourgeoisie/ capitalists) and industrial/ urban proletariat  Bourgeoisie seizes power in name of all but exploits proletariat/working class  Will be displaces by those it exploits: revolution o Capitalism:  Marx did not hate capitalism  Creates unprecedented wealth  But it wraps human relations and culture  Capitalist exploitation is at once the most subtle and the most extreme  But workers (proletariat) will redeem history: no exploitation and truth rather than ideology o Marx: history and Politics  Liberal democracy is presented to us as the interest of all but actually in the interest of the ruling class. Freedom versus substantive reality (how can you exercise your powers if you are poor?)  Its really all about capitalism: Marx is a student of Capitalism  For rights are an illusion, ideology is a mask for power, You cant see out of it because you are in it.  What does Marx mean by communism? Is it utopian and unrealistic?  We don‟t know what a society would look like  Marx says that we are leaving in a modern society, have division of labor, we depend on each other, and the way we organize society now is that we continue to depend on each other but a few people benefit. Recognition would make us not give control to a few people  Could we imagine a society where there is collective ownership? Will there be laziness? o Contradictions od Capitalism:  Production is a public activity but is held in private hands  What is a revolution? Political versus social revolution  When will the revolution happen? Free will versus determinism  Marx says that a revolution is bound to happen  Problem of false consciousness (what us the workers don‟t want a revolution?) o Questions  Stabilizing mechanisms of capitalism (welfare state  Marx would argue that it is temp)?  What is the role of the entrepreneur or capitalist?  Is the state really just a projection of economic power? October 15 th, 2012:  Communism and Fascism: o Liberalism and its crisis: th  Long 19 century is peak of liberalism‟s appeal  Liberal institutions develop even where social basis is not obviously present  Hungary‟s first free election was in 1990 o Liberalism and the working class  Extension of the franchise  Rise of social democracy in western Europe. Evolutionary socialism and reconciliation with liberal democracy: electoral socialism o What about the revolution?  Lenin: revolutionary movement under conditions of authoritarianism –Russia  Conspiracy  Workers only capable of “trade union consciousness” – left on their own- workers will never make a revolution – all they care about is money  Need “party” to bing them the truth: what this means for Marxism o Marxism and Economic Backwardness:  Russia- one of most backward countries in Europe  Working class revolution, with small working class  1917: World War and Revolution o World revolution or world power:  World revolution fails to materialize  From insurrection to statism- supporting communism means supporting the soviet union  But what is communism or socialism? What will this kind of economy look like?  Lenin : “communism = soviet power + electrification”  But still does not solve the problem o Stalinism: terror and progress  Industrialization  Collectivization  Terror and secret police  Purges and Famine… o Stalin and after  Construction of militarized state  Balance sheet. Won WWII and created an empire that lasted until 1991 but long run growth prospects dismal o Military expenditure  The soviet union devoted between 15 and 17 percent of its annual gross national product to military spending during the 1980s  From 1970 – 79 however, spending on the military was higher, usually fluctuating between 21.5 and 18.6 o Germany  Late state unification 1871  Caching up with Britain: economic modernization without political modernization  Always the question: adapt to existing world order to try to change it  World war I: discrediting of liberalism o Nazism/ Fascism  Critique of liberalism  Communism: equality: Nazism: hierarchy  Nazism as reactionary anti- modernism  Anti-Semitism: a. religion b. emancipation c. economic and sociological  Flaws of Weimar Republic 1919-1933 o Nazism/ fascism  Return to militarized state but with race as the key construct  War of diplomatic recognition in West, War of racial domination and extermination in East  Result: showdown between two great totalitarian regimes – Soviet Union and Nazi Germany  Holocaust and Defeat. Changing views of the Holocaust – modernity versus pre-modern impulse October 22nd, 2012: Problems of democracy:  Democracy is a relatively new form of governance  Democracy and Equality: o Rules of the game  political rules that govern things  By institutionalizing the rule of law, democracies are far more predictable o Political system that helps us manage diversity  Parties become more moderate and therefor manage diversity better  Democracies recognize that societies are diverse o Institutionalized uncertainty  Uncertainty is one of the core values of democracies  You can vote the government out  There are always alternatives  Understanding that there are no perpetual winners  Governments have to listen to what we have to say  Uncertainty therefore creates stability o Variations of democracy  There is no such thing as one fixed model of democracies – no two democracies are alike  The idea of democracy is flexible  Core virtue of democracy is that it is adaptable o Equality  The principle of equality is fundamental to democracy  (I) Equality of OPPORTUNITY o Political equality  The separation of church and state  We are all equal as citizens under to rule of law  As individuals we are all politically equal o Procedural democracy  How do we create political rules of the game that facilitate democracy?  How do we accomplish equal treatment to all under the law?  Therefore democracies have free AND fair elections o Polyarchy (Robert Dahl)  Public contestation  The provision of pluralism in the public sphere  We can exercise the rights to publically protest  Inclusive participation  If we can live by the ideals of political equality, we can live by the ideas of inclusive participation  Democracy is only democracy if only citizens can vote  (II) Equality of OUTCOME o political-economic equity o Procedural versus substantive democracy  Procedural = about rules, rules are only important if the result in more equitable outcomes  Will the institutionalization of democracy create more equitable outcomes? o Example: Democratic welfare state  The welfare state, in his historical origins, began with mobilization of working class  Focus on outcome of procedural rules  Voter turnout rate o Toronto – 50.6% in 2010 o Ontario – 49.2% in 2011  Collective action problem o We say we care about who the next prime minister is, and we care about our equality and rules, not more than 60% of eligible voters will vote o We all have a collective interest as to who our next PM will be  but individually we wont go to the ballot box o Challenge 1. Collective action problem o (i) costs – we may not have time to vote – the cost to vote is high o (ii) benefits – our single vote will not tip the scale – the benefits are so little that the cost to engage in the act are bigger o (iii) free riding – someone else will vote o It is not “rational” to vote  Equality of Opportunity – Challenges o Challenge 2. The Fallacy of Democratic Pluralism  Democratic pluralism- assumes political equality  Example: US health care reform  Tyranny of the minority  “The flaw in the pluralist heaven is that the heavenly chorus sings with a strong upper-class accent.” ~ Elmer E. Schattschneider  Power is not equally distributes o Challenge 3. Elite Democracy  To rise in politics / politicians usually have:  Wealth  Education  Social networks  Political parties  The “Myth of accessibility – we all have the right to participate directly in our government but many of us can‟t- inequality  Equality of Outcome – Challenges o 1. Protecting the disadvantaged  liberal tradition- equal rights of individuals lead to equitable outcomes  BUT – “…the belief that the right of the community can trump the rights of the individual – and that this is not incompatible with liberalism but exactly what humanizes it – really is a distinctively Canadian insight.” ~ Adam Gopnik  Article 33, notwithstanding clause  Bumiputra policy in Malaysia  A form of positive discrimination  Affirmative Action in the US  A solution that us inherently discriminatory  “…freedom is not enough. You do not wipe away the scars of centuries by saying: Now you are free to go where you want, and do as you desire, and choose the leaders you please. You do not take a person who, for years, has been hobbled by chains and liberate him, bring him up to the starting line of a race and then say, “you are free to compete with all the others,”, and still justly believe that you have been completely fair…ability is not just the product of birth. Ability is stretched or stunted by the family that you live with, and the neighborhood you live in, by the school you go to and the poverty of the richness of your surroundings.” ~ President Lyndon B Jhonson, 1965 o 2. Protecting the majority‟s will  Democratic transition in South Africa  Constitutional crafting and power sharing  Concentration of political power  Dominant party system o 3. Unelected Courts as policymakers  normative commitment to constitutionalism  modernization  functionalism  Weberian rationalism  Are juristocracies democracies?  Conclusion o There are a lot of virtues to democracies o Democracy is about rules of the game o It is about moderation o It is virtuous because it is uncertain yet has political stability o Democracies are variable - they look different around the world o However there are many challenges for democracy October 29, 2012 Democracy with Chinese Characteristics o The end of history – democracy proved to be the most resilient o Fukuyama thought democracy was right around the corner o There are lots of countries that look to the Chinese example and their relative stability o Attractiveness of China as an alternative model o “the people‟s wishes for and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible.” o Premier Wen Jia-Bao, interview with CNN, September 23, 2010 o A lot of discussion about [political reform, and the next ten years going on in China; o What are the prospects for democracy in china? o The viability of the Chinese system instead of democracy o China in the modern era:  Over the past 100 years there has been a lot of democratic moments and potential for a democratic breakthrough in Chinese modern history;  End of the Qing Dynasty  Huge defeat for Chinese nation; it was this defeated position; end of Dynasty  Population crisis  Was not a Chinese Dynasty – made no difference to the western society  Republican Revolution  Launched around China, overthrow of the emperor, proclamation of the republic of china, child emperor advocating the throne  Nationalist party – main goal was to rebuild a unified China out of the chaos that was the Qing Dynasty  Sum Yat-Sen – Three Principles of the People  Nation  Democracy –was going to be about democracy, new nation in which the people would be equal  Welfare – the nation was to care for its citizens  The intellectual current found its roots in the west. o Non democratic modern China:  Wealth, economic growth  The political system in China is constantly changing  Poor human rights record  Very little separation of powers  Relatively fewer freedoms  Very sophisticated censorship  China is turning theory on its head  As societies modernize, it continue to be democratic… not the case with China  (I) A Democratic revolution: o guidelines to carry forward:  socialism- way of breaking bonds of feudalism  the basis of this new modern china was to be build upon the “Chinese revolutionist spirit”  anti foreign rationalism – foreigners in foreign power had nothing good for China; belief in self-alliance o High tide of Maoist socialism (1949-56) o 100 Flowers Movement (1956) o Anti-rightist Campaign (1957) o Great Leap Forward (1958-1962)  Developmental disaster! o Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) o Yet no democratic revoltion  (II) a “Modernizing China o modernization theory – argues that a society undergoes stages of developmen – linear, sequential, one stage leads to the next  Deng Xiao-Ping and China‟s modernizations  Agriculture  Industry  National defense  Science and technology  China‟s Economic Rise o Yet no “fifth modernization” o According to modernization theory we should expect to see democracy  (III) Globalizing Democracy o End of History o The “third wave” and contagion o Human rights o Democracy promotion and foreign policy o Yet, no democracy  Flirting with Democracy  Asian values?  New culture movement (1913)  Democracy wall (1978)  June 4, Tiananmen Square (1989)  Charter 08 (2008) Challenges for Chinese Democracy  1. Stability and Economic Growth – democratic is chaotic, o a “harmonious society” o Authoritarian developmentalism o Global capital – therefore authoritarianism is better for China  2. Benevolent Dictator  3. Nationalism Legitimation of CCP Resist foreign interference Guard china‟s sovereignty Democracy as western imperialism Challenges (continued) 4. adaptive authoritarianism  dynamic authoritarianism  economic reform  political opening – “deliberation” versus “consultation”  hybrid regimes 5. Choosing democracy  “authoritarian regimes in this sense are not forever. For all their diversity and longevity they live under the shadow of the future, vulnerable to existential challenged that mature democracies do not face”  Inevitability or choosing to transition to democracy November 5 , 2012: Experiment in Democracy:  Fisher developed the exact test  to calculate odds  The probability that she could get all the cups correct by chance in 1 in 70  So what‟s important? o We can learn from experiments o We can test people‟s claims o Treatment and Control o Randomization o Measurement  What do we mean by an experiment?  Types of experiments  Federalism and representation  Clientism and voting  Facial competence and voting   Does federalism lead to better political representation?  Are voters superficial?  How do we stop patronage and instead get public goods?  Does contact from political campaigns matter in an election? Defining Experiments:  Treatment / Condition  Assignment to treatment or control/comparison groups is random and the process of randomization is known  Ex-post measurement of results  Ex. Does prof. Kopstein teach better when he wears a tie Treatments:  A treatment is a stimulus  Anything that is thought to have an effect on some outcome  It is applied to some people and not to others  Or it is applies at some time and not other  Ex. Whether prof. Kopstein wears a tie to class to teach Random assignment:  We put some subject in treatment and some in control  We do it randomly  What does it mean that this is done randomly?  Ex: we could lip a coin before every class to see whether prof. Kopstein would wear a tie Ex-post measurement of results:  For an experiment to be complete, we need to measure the results  What we want to measure are causal effects Example: Question: dies wearing a tie make prof teach better Treatment: wearing a tie Random assignment: flip a coin before class Measurement: exam results  To have an experiment we have to have all three parts – to make a causal inference we have to have all three parts Measuring effects:  What is a causal effect? o Difference in outcomes between two states of the world, treated versus untreated o Why is this problematic? o We cannot observe any given subject in both its treated and untreated state. o “Fundamental problem of casual inference.” o Random assignment enables us to create two groups whose treated and untreated states are the same expectation.  Why do an experiment? o Because we want to make causal inferences – but we want to make them about important things o 1. Does federalism increase representation? o 2. Can politicians win by providing public goods rather than patronage? o 3. Are elections won for superficial reasons?  Examples: o Field experiments  What if you could intervene in the real world?  And what if subjects do not know they are a part of it  Ex. Randomly assign some people to receive emails to tell them to vote o Natural experiments  Sometimes the world provides for experiments  Natural disasters  Lotteries  School vouchers  If we can measure the effects of these, we can conduct “natural experiments” o Survey experiments  Survey and lab experiments provide treatments in less natural environments  They could be done over the phone or online, or in a computer room  Treatments are often different wordings of a question, or exposure to a picture, or video content o Lavatory experiments  Federalism and helpfulness o Federalism generates jurisdiction boundaries o There is a federal government and provincial governments o Some responsibilities are unique, but some are shares o There are not always clear, especially to voters o Who do you contact for help? o Do boundaries lead to a doubling up? Or empty core?  Canada= shared jurisdiction  Federalism experiments o Subjects  Randomly choose 101 federal and 101 provincial politicians o Treatments  Send politicians emails from “citizen”. See how the politicians respond.  Employment insurance, finding a family doctor o What are we measuring? (dependable variable)  All emails were blinded  Each response was scored on helpfulness, measured from 0-5 o Federalism increases helpfulness if:  Politicians are equally as helpful on shared issues as on issues in their jurisdiction o Clientism and voting:  Why do some countries provide for numerous public goods, like roads, schools, hospitals?  Why do other countries instead provide private goods? And corrupt government? o What do politicians want?  First, to win office,  Second, to provide good public policy  So, why don‟t they provide for good public policy?  Wanchekon wanted to know: how could politicians in Benin be convinced to offer public rather than clients goods?  What if voters really want public goods?  Wantchekon worked with real presidential candidates on the 2001 presidential election in Benin  Politicians agreed to change their messages in some villages  Voters like clientalist messages  But some voters especially women, prefer public policy messages  Hey good looking: o Is facial appearance? o Do we “judge books by covers” o Do we make snap judgments about people based on first impression? o Why not for politicians? o Todorov et al wanted to see if more “competent” looking candidates did better in elections o They showed voters two randomly selected faces, and asked who was more competent o Compared to real votes  Concluding thoughts: o We can know something about the empirical facts of the political world o Sometimes, experiments are the best way yi uncover facts o Once we uncover them, then we can think about how to improve the world. o We can learn about the political world, about democracy The rise of great powers: November 19th International relations theory, uncertain realities, and the rise of China  Often times democracies are allies, tend to be slow, takes a long time for democracies to make decisions.  we live in an age of extraordinary uncertainty.  As a discipline, we try to predict, tr
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