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MARCH 25 2013 .docx

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science

POL101 NOTES FROM MARCH 25, 2013 LECTURE: UNCERTAINTY AND POLITICS: ELUSIVE TRUTH IN A UNCERTAIN WORLD Politics in irregular times: invoke the principal of science (irrefutable truth) Tell that truth: in London Cholera a lot died thus how to stop: this is a disaster, how to stop, uncertainty not responding William Farr more are dying by fog Politics is about learning from the past Global Finance: VAR (value at risk) model: type of risk analysis that expresses risk as a number that measures the confidence of the market allowing systematic equilibrium. Sense of trends but is this accurate in measuring panic (no) thus it is about uncertainty as the future is uncertain If it is assumed about uncertainty: 1. Politics: make votes and decisions today for tomorrow. The aging society: uncertain about how much more costly. Financial regulation, which is a flawed model, but do we change it. Preventive health care: invest because means less sick. SARS: no spike capacity 2. Risk and Politics: problem of uncertain outcomes thus characteristics are unknown. Risk is probability distribution: when will we die and reasonableness. The normal distribution cure: tails are improbable but what to do: nuclear program in CA
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