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POL 322 Lecture 2.docx

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
Harald Bathelt

1/16/2013 4:33:00 PM Lecture 2- POL322H1 Knowledge Observation Collecting evidence/facts- assumes empirical approach vs normative, nothing is self evident, knowledge acquired through experience However, suffers from non-justification This process of knowledge building is based on faith that it is the best approach. No means to prove it is correct or the absolute best Churchill: it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried Confirming, challenging exercise: not about proving but failing to disconfirm, thus assumes rational interference- no claims about universal truths Explain and predict: nature is orderly, events have causes (determinism) Paradigm shifts –advance theories: example- voting behavior, partisanship nd big idea on how you vote. 2 . Short and long term approach of understanding voting. They also recongnised that campaings and issues that matter. The short term factors can explain shifts in election outcomes Issues and policies really matter Important aspect is that values change over time, eg partisanship is now dead as now one participates in traditional politics What we utilize is just as important as the knowledge development. We have to utilize instruments and sound procedures: -systematic (vs intuition, guessing) -rigorous -transparent: -evaluate methods: means to which we know, -continuous pursuit, -self-correcting, -replication -research, hypothesis and theory -research question, problem puzzle: why relevant?, theory development, hypothesis-null hypothesis and falsification, alternative possibilities -identity: concepts and concrete measures -approximations- some error involved, example is environmental concern types of observation: individual, countries public policies, examples of variables: age, gender party affiliation examples of attributes grouped in that variable selecting appropriate research techniques- how do we gather data? -utilize specific research methods -appropriate technique based on research question -several types: survey, content, experimental, focus groups, interviews determine best means of evaluating data quantitative- look at different statistical tests --some better than others based on situation ---also based on measurement of variables evaluate findings -what are the basic findings? -do they conform to hypothesis theory? -can we make broad generalizations? ----probabilistic findings, no absolute truths -evaluate competing theories publication and transparency -put findings out for critique -include all aspects of study ----allows replication ----furthers knowledge ----allows for debate of methods and techniques final lecture – important for essay - y – a+b1x1 + b2 x2 y= a+ 0.5x1t + 0.8x2 + beauty of multiple regression 1 independent variable is often gonna explain behavior multiple regression: how substantial a role do IVs have? Two methods of evaluation : 1.R squared (R2) 2. beta r square- precise estimate of effect of an IV, or set of IV’s, on DV captured by unstandardized B values yet doesn’t explain how much of the variation in the DV is explained by IV’s so, how good a job does the IV’s do at explaining the DV? This is the role of R2 How much better can we understand ‘interest in international news’ by knowing ‘interest in federal news’ Mean score is the best guess to determine the average or prediction of scores- r2 takes all ivs goes through a formula and explains how much better am I to predict the values than just getting the mean R2- runs from a scale of 0-1, question of strength If u get 0 then your ivs are insignificant and rethink why u have them in the model in the first place and IV provides no contribution to understanding DV Best guess- mean, so how much better than out best guess does our IV add? Rsquare of 1 would be a perfect prediction, and Iv completely explains DV Compares error from DV mean with error from regression line Multivariate – completely 3d dimensionalizes the results/data Can be interpreted as the proportion of the variation in the Dv explained by the IV’s Or the perce
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