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POL322 Lecture #7.docx

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Political Science

10/28/2013 POL332 Lecture #7 Is Our Finding “Significant?” Hypothesis Testing, and Statistical and Substantive Significance Statistical Inference - Descriptive Inference 1. Point Estimation (single number as a estimation) 2. Interval Estimation (two numbers, the range of the value) 3. Hypothesis testing What is a Hypothesis Test?: General 1. Form a hypothesis about a population parameter (formal statistical hypothesis) 2. Summarize evidence in a test statistic based on the sample 3. Make decisions about the hypothesis based on the evidence Population Mean/Proportion Hypothesis Test on the Population Mean - suppose we conduct a hypothesis test on the population mean \ o always about a statement - evidence in the sample is summarize in a test statistic based on - the test statistic s too be tested against the hypothesis Five Principles of Hypothesis Testing 1. Assumptions a. Random sample b. If N is larger, no assumptions is made for the shape of the population distribution (usually a normal distribution) c. If N is small, we need to make an assumption for the shape of the population distribution d. We focus on the case in which N is large 2. Hypothesis a. A statement about a population parameter taking a particular numerical value i. Ie, a population parameter is the mean ideological position of the U.S. citizens b. Translate our research question into a formal statement of statistical hypotheses c. Null hypothesis: a statement that the parameter takes a particular value d. Alternative Hypothesis: a statement that the parameter falls in some alternatives range of values. It should be on of the followings e. Two-sided test, one-sided test i. Which one you use needs to be decided prior to conducting 3. Test Statistic a. One of the statistics, the numerical summary of the data b. If the sample mean y is far away from the population mean assumed under the null hypothesis, it provides stronger evidence against the null hypothesis c. We need to evaluate how far away y is from uo 10/28/2013 d. In order to eval
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