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Lecture 8

Lecture 8 – The Rise of Great Powers w/ audio recording (Notebook layout)

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Department
Political Science
Course
POL101Y1
Professor
Jeffrey Kopstein
Semester
Fall

Description
Lecture 8 – The Rise of Great Powers November 18, 2013 The Rise of Great Powers: International Relations Theory, Uncertain Realities, and the Rise of China Democratic Peace Theory  Democracies don’t fight one another o Democracies are allies o Democracies share ideologies (politics, economics)  Everything is uncertain, we still attempt to predict Taiwan  800-1500 missiles pointed towards Taiwan  14 thlargest economy in the world  Democratic  Ally of the US  During Cold War, China, as a communist country, was not recognized. Taiwan was recognized; the Republic of China  Normalization of relations recognized China, demoted Taiwan  Taiwan is a De Jure Chinese province, de jure it is an independent state in reality  1996: Missile Crisis – Chinese launched missiles to scare Taiwan  2005: Anti-Secession Law – Should Taiwan declare independence, China will use military force  2010: Arms Procurement Bill – Weapons brought from the US by the Chinese  The US will defend Taiwan if attacked  Taiwan is not afraid because they are at a strategic position for the US and expect defense from the US due to moral standing  There are a lot of uncertainties – we don’t know how China, Taiwan, or US will act China’s Rise: What We Know  (I) China’s Economic Rise o modernization of agriculture, defense, science & technology. An economic power  (II) China has Hard Power o Great military power o Even though they lost many wars, had very little military power but a lot of people power – army full peasants o Today, China is 2 nd largest military and 2ndlargest spender (Behind US). Nuclear power. o 1:1 (China:US) land based weapons o 1:2 Naval Ships o 1:8 Defense Spending o 5:1 Available Military Personnel  (III) China has Soft Power o Ability of influencing other countries w/o military o Through investment and o Energy Security – increased investment in Canada o Beijing Consensus, emulation, people want to be like you, so it matters to have affiliations with one another.  Everyone wants to copy successful country – China’s 10% increase a year in economy o Increases cultural power, Chinese culture being part of western mainstream culture  (IV) America’s Decline o America’s soft power is declining  “China’s mix of economic engagement and soft power has spurred some fears that Western influence in developing regions will thereby be diminished...Many Americans in particular are concerned about losing strategic influence in Asia.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2009 o China today is actually better functioning government than the US. – George Soros, 2010 o America used to be dominant in Asia  Had great military, economic power and influence  Americans are buying Hondas, Nintendo’s, Japanese Products  Today, soft, economic, military power all in decline o This rise & decline of China and US may have systemic implications  We may see transformation of entire international systems What We Don’t Know  Canadians Believe China is:  Economic Opportunity - 43%  Military Threat - 60%  Greater Influence than US - 66% The International System  International relations occur within a system  Systems in place which shape international relations  (i) Sovereignty – Treaty of Westphalia o We respect boarders, crossing a line into different laws and orders o Sovereignty allows our government to tax, police, make policies, and defend itself and it’s boarders  (ii) Power and the Distribution of Power o Hard power, soft power o Power can be used as a threat or as coercion  Able to make a country rich for doing what you want them to do o Distribution of power is uneven o On one hand, all states are equal in terms of sovereignty, all governments respect that they have full sovereignty within their own boarders o On th
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