Politics 18 november 2013.
The rise of great powers:
international relations theory, uncertain realities and the rise
• Democracies don't go to war with each other:
◦ They are allies
◦ they have same ideologies.
◦ they are too slow, it take a long time to mobilize for
• Politics and pursuit of political science is a uncertain
endeavour. they suck are predicting: e.g. arab spring end
of cold war etc.
• How and why countries behave in ways in which they do.
◦ with the exception of the democratic peace theory we
have no good theories to explain this unpredictable
• They are 800 -1500 missiles pointed towards taiwan.
◦ they are economically stable.
◦ they are allies with US.
◦ they are on the east coast of china.
◦ taiwan is strategically important to US. use it as a
plane land for stuff in asia,
◦ its called taiwan republic of china: communist china
was not recognized, rather they were considered a
legitimate government in china.
◦ De jure Chinese province: the americans decided to be
a little closers, we ll be friends with china this put
taiwan in problem it was no longer a nation state,
So now taiwan is a province of china.
◦ De facto independent state :in many ways it operates
as a country but formally its not.
◦ 1996 missile crisis. send a few missiles on the
footsteps of taiwan to show that they are watching them.
◦ 2005 Anti secession Law: If any chinese
province trys to declare independent the
chinese government will launch an attack to
prevent this from happening.
◦ 2010 Arms procurement Bill : So taiwan decided to buy
arms and ammunitions.
• China's rise like Germany's rise will have an impact on the
whole international system.
• China is now a economic power.
• What we now about China:
• Hard power:
◦ China had hard time defending borders in the past,
◦ Active military personnel- 1.5:1 (PRC:US)
◦ They have there own aircraft carries.
◦ It standing military is bigger
◦ in land based weapons (1 : 1)
◦ in terms of naval ships ( 1:2) they are far behind.
◦ Defense spending : -- 1 : 8 thats because US spends a
◦ Available military personnel- 5 : 1
• SOFT POWER:
◦ Growing massive amounts of investments in the world.
2004 - 4.4 billion dollars. particular area of energy ,
lead to investments in canada. 2009 Chinese
investments in canada were 10 billions.
◦ Pursuit of energy security
◦ Beijing Consensus. it mattered that washington dc was
your friend, you wanted to be like Americans, the
rise of beijing consensus however is a alternative
model that enriches political authoritarianism.
◦ chinese soft power is in the RISE.
• AMERICAN DECLINE:
◦ CHINA's mix of economic engagement and soft power has spurred some fears that western influence in
developing regions will thereby be diminishes..
Many Americans in particular are concerned about
loosing strategic influence in Asia.
◦ IN the past america was the most important soft power.
Americans we very popular in Asia. But now
it doesn't matter! Obama policy : pivot back to asia-
show up our influence. the response was stalking.
◦ Their is a rapid shift of power and influence FROM US
TO CHINA. - George Soros,2010.
• Canadian Attitudes:
◦ Economic opportunity - 43%
◦ Military threat- 60%
◦ Greater influence than US: -66%.
• The International SYSTEM:
◦ Sovereignty- Treat of Westphalia. - states respects the
borders. it is also internally constituted- the
government has the powers to tax, arrest defend
◦ Power and the distribution of power: the power to
influence other weather you do it with
economic ways or whatever. I can make you richer!
The stick- where you use threat ' i will destroy you'.
What really matters is the distribution of power. this
is very uneven. on one hand we have equality but
we have inherently unequally distribution