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Lecture 9

Lecture 9 - The Rise of Great Powers

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
Jeffrey Kopstein

The Rise of Great Powers International Relations Theory Uncertain Realities and the Rise of ChinaPolitical science is based on theory Generate theories to generalize and by doing so create theories to predict However political science is not very good at making theoretical claims and predicting For examples did not predict the end of the cold war Political science tries very hard to predict but are not very successful Reason why politics is very uncertain great degree of uncertainty and the way states behave Ultimate goals Why do states behave the way they do How do states behave the way they doDemocratic Peace TheoryArgues that there is a pattern of that democracies dont fight other democraciesIn most cases democracies are allied with one another therefore fighting is curtailedIn most cases democracies share ideological affinity therefore tend not to fight one anotherDemocracies tend to be slow when passing policiesMay be conflicts but the empirical evidence suggests democracies dont fight one anotherGeneralizing patternTaiwanSmall island of the southwest coast of ChinaChina has between 8001500 missiles pointed at Taiwan th Despite being a small island has 14 largest trading economy in the worldDemocracy repeated elections since 1992Presidential elections every 4 yearsEpitomizes the uncertainty we face in international politics1920s30s China was embroiled in a civil war Chinese nationalist party vs Chinese communistsNationalists saw it was going to lose fled to Taiwan called Taiwan Republic of China at that timeSeen as the legitimate party of China in exile1970s Chinese communist party is recognized by the US as the official party of China after normalizing relations Taiwan becomes the de jure Chinese provinceDe facto independent state however Taiwan behaves as its own independent state own currency economy democracy elections own foreign policy own military manages army air force navyThough Taiwan is not recognized as a country or state legally a province of China in reality its acts and looks like an independent stateTaiwan Relations Act stipulates that US will defend them militarily if ever attacked by ChinaPisses of China1990s Taiwan sheds former authoritarian past rise of formal independence movementThis movement results in the 1996 missile crisisCoincides with the 96 elections Taiwan was to elect their first electionsChina launches missiles fell short of Taiwan but scared them nonetheless2005 China creates AntiSecession Law if Taiwan was to declare independence China will use military force and attack them under this lawTaiwan responds with the 2010 Arms Procurement Bill Buys technology from the USReality is that there are 8001500 missiles pointed at Taiwan
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