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Lecture

POL101 Lecture #9

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Department
Political Science
Course
POL101Y1
Professor
Agria
Semester
Fall

Description
Exam 1520 MCEssay 112111POL101 Lecture 9 The Rise of Great Powers International relations theory uncertain realities and the Rise of China Political science is built upon theories the availability for us to predict We create theories to generalize to generalize is to predictDemocratic peace theorythere is a pattern that democracies dont fight other democraciesy Generated a theory as why this is the case allies to each othery Democracies share a ideologically heritagey Democracies tend to be relatively slow when making policies long time before they are ready to declare war Political science despite our efforts its not very good at predicting ie the ending of the Cold War Politics is inherently uncertain in the way states behaviour Try to explain how and why countries in the way they do Global politics in inherently unpredictable Taiwan Taiwan Republic of China8001500 missiles pointed atth 14 largest trading economy of the world Official government of exile of China 1970s normalising relationship with the USADe jure Chinese provinceLoses international statue in terms of international law De facto independent state Taiwan is an independent state Own economic state has its own currency all behaves like a democracy nation Though Taiwan is not recognized as a country or a state it walks and talks like an independent stateTaiwan relations act America will defend Taiwan military if China attacks Taiwan Chinaman mad1990s democratic transition authoritarian shed Each 1990s a formal independent movement 1996 missile crisis first president election of TaiwanYou want to be independent dont forget that there is a large powerful country beside it2005 AntiSecession Law if Taiwan is to declare independence china will use military forceempowered to use military means to reclaim it 2010 Arms Procurement Bill buys military technology from the USAPolitical debates of what to buy from USA what to sell to Taiwan The reality is that there are 8001500 missiles pointing to Taiwan It is estimated that taiwans military power will last 3 days Taiwan is a too much a strategic asset to the USA if china and USA were to go on war Taiwan would be the loading base Tremendous uncertainty we dont know how Taiwan and china will act and the fact that if push to the state if USA will defend Taiwan Taiwan wasnt worried about china until the 1990s Chinas Rise What we know1 Chinas economic rise 1952 679 billion GDP 182321 billion GDP 2005
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