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Lecture 9

Lecture 9

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Department
Political Science
Course
POL101Y1
Professor
Jeffrey Kopstein
Semester
Fall

Description
The Rise of Great Powers: International Relations Theory, Uncertain Realities, and the Rise of China 2012-11-19 4:06 PM Democratic Peace Theory - Democracies do not fight one another - Democracies tent to share allies - Tend to be slow when making decisions - Tend to have the same ideologies - We live in a world of uncertainty, we cannot predict but we still try Example: Taiwan - Off the coast of Taiwan - People know that there are missiles pointed at Taiwan by China - 14 thlargest economy in the world - It is a democracy - During the cold war, China was not recognized as a country, however Taiwan was recognized: Taiwan, Republic of China - To the international community, Taiwan was the leader - The normalization of relations recognized China, demoted Taiwan down to a province of China - It is a De jure Chinese province, it is an independent state in reality - There was a democratic transition - In the 1990's Taiwan - 1996 Missile crisis: Chinese launched missiles to scare Taiwan - 2005: Anti-Secession Law 0 Should Taiwan declare independence, china will use force - 2010: Arms Procurement Bill – weapons brought from the US by the Chinese - The united states would come to the defense of Taiwan if it was attacked - Taiwan is not scared of attack because they are a strategic position for the US and expect defense from the US due to moral standings China’s Rise: What We Know (I) China’s economic rise: We know that China is now an economic power (II) China has Hard Power: Military power and capability - Used to be militarily backward - Lost many wars - Second largest military spender in the world, nuclear power - Active military personnel – Standing army is larger than the US 1.5 Chinese solders for every American soldier - Land based weapons – Same as the US - Naval ships – Half that of the US - Defense spending – 1 eighth of the United States - Available military personnel – 5 times larger than the US (III) Soft power is on the rise - The ability for a country to influence another country without use of military - One way they do this is through investment - One of the largest investors in Africa and much of the developing world, this buys them influence - Energy Security: relies on the imports of energy sources around the world - Increasing investment in Canada and natural resources - China is buying a stake in Canada and how our government behaves in the relationship between the two countries - Beijing Consensus, emulation, people who want to be like you - What China has to offer is an alternative modern of development - More and more people want to emulate (copy) it - Increasing cultural power, Chinese culture being part of part of western mainstream culture (IV) America’s Decline - “China’s mix of economic engagement and soft power has spurred some fears that Western influence in developing regions will thereby be diminished…Many Americans in particular are concerned about losing strategic influence in Asia.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2000 - The US used to be the dominant power in Asia - The US funded the rise of power, brought the products that they made - Americans have undermined their own power - "There is really remarkable, rapid shift of power and influenced from the US to China…Today China has not only a more vigorous economy, but actually a better functioning government than the US.” George Soros, 2010 - China is able to function more efficiently because there are no deadlocks or bureaucracy - China rising, America declining: systemic implications - If this continues, we may see the transformation of the entire international systems - The post war system may change What We Don’t Know - Canadian Attitudes - - Economic opportunity – 43% - Military threat – 60% - Greater influence than US – 66% The International System - International relations occur within a system - System in place which shapes international relations - 3 core principals - 1. Sovereignty - Treaty of Westphalia - It gives us a border - Sovereignty allows our government to tax - Other countries have to respect borders as a virtue of Sovereignty 2. Power and the distribution of power - Hard power, soft power etc - Power can be exercised as a threat or as coercion - The distribution of power matters and is inherently unequal, there will be countries more powerful than others - On the one hand, all states are equal in terms of sovereignty, all governments , no matter how powerful respect that - On the other hand, distribution is unequal 3. Anarchic international system - No world government
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