POL201Y1 LECTURE on January 22, 2013
-Third Wave: Samuel Huntington
He defines the waves of democratization as the way of group of transition from nondemocratic to
-wave: a group of transitions from non-democratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified
period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period
-there have been 3 waves:
-1st wave: 17th to 19th century. Ex. Britain and France. The cause of democracy was the
modernization. Demands of voice and political participation rose as the result of revolutions. People
rose up and demanded to elect their representatives. The first wave dies out in 19th century.
-2nd wave: after ww2. Democracy was imposed on the countries that lost in WW2. The second
way was the decolonization (ex. India).
-3rd wave: began in April,1974 when Portuguese regime was overthrown. It was dominated
from the fascism. Carnation Revolution was the end of dictatorship. Trying of democracy was surprise
and it was the beginning of democratization.
-when 3rd wave began, there were only about 40 democratic countries in the world who are mostly
industrialized countries. Military and one party dictatorship were norm in the rest of the world. After
1974, the transition to democracy gradually happened around the world. Ex. 1970s: Spain, Greece,
Protugal. 1980s: Ecuador, Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil. 1990s: Philippines, S. Korea, Taiwan, Bangladesh,
and Eastern Europe.
-in some countries, the transition was delayed even there economic activities grew.
-in 1989, the democracy spread to Asia. Military powers and dictatorship were removed.
-by 1987, the 3rd wave spread to 2/5 in the countries in the world. It looked like a regional phenomenon.
-by the fall of Berlin wall in 1989 and fall of Soviet Union in 1991 brought profound change in the world.
The fear of two super powers in developing countries... proxy wars in Vietnam and Korea. Whole world
was divided with two opposite allies.
-many of these cold war proxy wars were fought in Africa. Ex. Angola. It was started in 1974. Angola was
the colony of Portugal. When Portugal became democratic, they gave up their colonies. They were
struggling against one another. One of these factions became the government of Angola, and another
faction was the opposite party. They called themselves as socialist and communist. They tended to get
help from Soviet Union and Cuba. On the other hand, South Africa was democratic. They were feared that Angola would fall into communism. They also gets involve in the war as well. So, when they got
involved, so does US through CIA based in the capital city. Once the war gets framed in this way, the
whole world is involved in the civil war. Who gets to govern the country became the world conflict.
All of the sudden, Soviet Union collapse in 1991. They withdrew from Angola. They were no longer
capable of sustaining the proxy war in Angola. The threat was gone.
Proxy wars killed millions of people and super power. The territory was completely destroyed.
Starting in 1991, many of countries get freed from fears of super powers.
-In Benin (small African country), they declared that itself as sovereign, and they had democratic
-Nelson Mandela was released in 1990. It started the political dialogue which led to first voting.
-There were only three African democratic countries in 1990.
-2nd liberation after 1990. Most African felt to liberalize and open their market...
-In 1974: 41 democracies among 150 states. Among 109 states, 56 states made transitions to
-26 states have become independent of European colonial rule since 1974. Of these new states, 15
became democratic at independent. The rest became democratic after some period of authoritarian
-since the 3rd wave: 45 new states and almost 3/4 of those were democratic.
-today, almost 70% of total countries in the world are democratic.
-How and why those waves happened?
3rd wave is different from 1st and 2nd waves. It became through negotiation. 1st wave: modernization;
2nd wave: transition.
-democratization as long process
-driven by social forces, cultural and economic transformation -explains the First Wave, but not the second or the third
-it bubbles from the below and democratic elements emerge from social processes that exist in the
society. Democracy emerges in the society as the result of pre-conditions. Britain and France did rise
due to long process of economic growth.
-then, the world changes. Modernization theory does not explain what happened after1974... because it
is structural theory. Industrialization creates the logic... it is not driven by the agents (individuals). It is
the natural outcome of social and economical results. Those structures include institutions, literacy,
education, elections, media...etc.
Transition theory (3rd wave)
-these political transitions came as the result of decisions made by elites. Authoritarian leaders were
pressured by the opposition leaders who are opposed to authoritarian system. So they do 2 things to
protect themselves that were mistakes: 1) liberalize; people would accept that more liberalize
authoritarian system and allow them to remain in power. But, this was the mistake. As soon as
liberalization occurs, they tumble out into the streets to