November 5, 2012
Continuation from War II
Jus Ad Bellum
just cause-self defense (UN charter)
declared publicly by a legitimate authority; if not by a state actor = by law
proportionality – benefit outweighs …….
Jus in Bello
Hague (1899,1970); Geneva (1949)
Discrimination – protecting civilians (Geneva; nuclear weapons? (detterence)
anerial bombing (‘smart bombs’)? Terrorism)
Proportionality- double effect (agent orange) = not about the balance of
casualties – an acts benefit needs to out weigh its costs/ bad efects
Jus Post Bellum
Nuremberg; Milosevic; Rwanda; ICC; Saddam
The ‘justice’ of the winners? – bias according to their opinions of whats just
Post war responsibilities- you brke it, you own it
Treatment of occupied territory and population
Just occupation? (Humanitarian interventions)
Does it matter?
Realists: at best what we see is organized hypocrisy (Krasner)
However: decision makers and generals use the language of Just War Theory;
Certain strategies of war are less acceptable today; Indication of changing norms?
Changing technology? Does it affect policy?
Why study crisis?
Most wars are preceded by crisis and escalation
If we want to understand war- we need to understand intentional crisis, and
particularly decision making during crisis
If we wish to avoid war we need to improve crisis management skills
What is and International Crisis?
Hermann- surprise, high level of threat, short decision time
Situational vs. Behavioral Explanations
What affects the outcome of a crisis?
Situational (structural) variables: the structure of the crisis (decision cube),
the nature of the conflict, the structure of the system Behavioral variables: the quality of decision making and skill of decision
Cuban Missile Crisis 1
1959 Castro takes over Cuba
November 1960 JFk elected
January 1961 Bay of Pigs
June 1962 USSR decides to introduce nuclear missiles to Cuba
16 October 1962 U2 images crisis: surprise; limited time; threat
Ex- Comm: 20 senior decision makers; secret; constant meetings; JFK not a
member; recordings; 13 days
Possible American response:
Ignore the missiles
Invasion blockade (nothing gets in or out of the country unless missiles
Allison’ three conceptual models
Rational, organizational, bureaucratic, and (Gilday adds cognitive)
Like levels of analysis- these models provide us with competing explanations
for political outcomes- competing descriptions of the process of decision
Same definition of rationality as in rational choice
Describes the process of decision making rather than the outcome
Collect information; list all policy altern