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Political Science
Lilach Gilady

November 5, 2012 International Crisis Continuation from War II Jus Ad Bellum  just cause-self defense (UN charter)  last resort  declared publicly by a legitimate authority; if not by a state actor = by law unjust  proportionality – benefit outweighs ……. Jus in Bello  Hague (1899,1970); Geneva (1949)  Discrimination – protecting civilians (Geneva; nuclear weapons? (detterence) anerial bombing (‘smart bombs’)? Terrorism)  Proportionality- double effect (agent orange) = not about the balance of casualties – an acts benefit needs to out weigh its costs/ bad efects Jus Post Bellum  Nuremberg; Milosevic; Rwanda; ICC; Saddam  Reparations  The ‘justice’ of the winners? – bias according to their opinions of whats just  Post war responsibilities- you brke it, you own it  Treatment of occupied territory and population  Just occupation? (Humanitarian interventions) Does it matter? Realists: at best what we see is organized hypocrisy (Krasner) However: decision makers and generals use the language of Just War Theory; Certain strategies of war are less acceptable today; Indication of changing norms? Changing technology? Does it affect policy? International Crisis  Why study crisis?  Most wars are preceded by crisis and escalation  If we want to understand war- we need to understand intentional crisis, and particularly decision making during crisis  If we wish to avoid war we need to improve crisis management skills What is and International Crisis?  Hermann- surprise, high level of threat, short decision time  Decision cube Situational vs. Behavioral Explanations  What affects the outcome of a crisis?  Situational (structural) variables: the structure of the crisis (decision cube), the nature of the conflict, the structure of the system  Behavioral variables: the quality of decision making and skill of decision makers Cuban Missile Crisis 1  1959 Castro takes over Cuba  November 1960 JFk elected  January 1961 Bay of Pigs  June 1962 USSR decides to introduce nuclear missiles to Cuba  16 October 1962 U2 images  crisis: surprise; limited time; threat  Ex- Comm: 20 senior decision makers; secret; constant meetings; JFK not a member; recordings; 13 days Possible American response:  Ignore the missiles  Diplomacy  Surgical bombing  Invasion blockade (nothing gets in or out of the country unless missiles removed) Allison’ three conceptual models  Rational, organizational, bureaucratic, and (Gilday adds cognitive)  Like levels of analysis- these models provide us with competing explanations for political outcomes- competing descriptions of the process of decision making Rational Model  Unitary actor  Same definition of rationality as in rational choice  Describes the process of decision making rather than the outcome  Collect information; list all policy altern
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