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Political Science
Lilach Gilady

Theory: Description Explanation Prediction Example: scene from movie holy grail Description and prediction but no explanation Theories are models of reality In search of an analytical knife Look for a simple theory -Every model by definition omits certain dimensions of reality -every models therefore includes implicit fundamental assumptions on what matters most -there is always more than one way to cut a “cake” Explaining an event: We all theories Explaining car accident: Driver: unqualified, careless, tires… Car: mechanical problems Weather. Road conditions, animals Transportation systems, economic structures Level of analysis: -systematic organization of facts -Singer (1960) Domestic/International Micro/ Macro Should differentiate causal reasons on a domestic scale or international -Russet, Starr, Kinsella; individual, decision makers, government structure, society, IR, world system -How can we judge which level matters most? thought experiments (counterfactuals)  what is the best way to prevent what has happened (article “What if”) Hiroshima, 6/08/1945 If FDR was still alive, maybe the atomic bomb would not be used. To understand the outcome, need to understand the decision making level, (who said what, who supported what, who was influential…) Atomic bomb dropped by the USA (diff structure of gov- need to understand it) Also look at structure of Japan, diff pol structure. To understand Truman, need t0o understand that it is WW, so analyze it at an international level, systemic. Move to the world system level of analysis. Korea- 1910: J occupies Korea 45: Yalta: temporary division along the 38 parallel (beginning of Cold War) 48: ROK/Sngman Rhee/ Seoul, DPRK/ Kim-Il-Song/ Pyongyang 12 an 1950: Dean Acheson’s Speech 24 June 1950 DPRK invasion MacArthur. Inchon To cross or not to cross the 38 ?h 0ct 50: China against, intervenes. MacArthur sacked., To cross or not to cross the Yalu? First limited war July 51: peace talks (POW’s) July 53 Cease fire agreement (ROK does not sign) Individual Level -can an individual change history? (article what if) 28 june 1914: Gavrillo Princip :assignation of the Archduke 1-Individual level -personality, education, past experiences, ideology, beliefs… -Wilson in Paris, Bush Jr ad Bush Sr, Kennedy Jr and Kennedy Senior -Not very theoretical -Counterfactual- if the decisions maker were a diff person, the outcome would have been diff. 2-Role of Decision Makers -where you sit is where you stand your bureaucratic position affects where ur stand on certain decisions (so we can predict who will support what) -Bureaucratic models of decision making -example: Cuban Missile crisis -Mapping interests, information flows, decision making procedures -Counterfactuals-change the decision making dynamic and the outcome changes 3-Governmental Structure -Regime type (democracy/autocracy)  prediction of behavior of state. -Map the incentive and constraints that ach regime type genera
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