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Lecture 8

Lecture 8 - International Crisis.docx

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Political Science
Lilach Gilady

International Crisis October-30-13 10:21 AM Why study crisis ?  we want to understand war and understand the particulars of an international crisis o We also want to study the management which did not result in war o By finding more ways to avoid war and manage crisis, we can help the international community by reducing the overall amount of crisis that result in warfare  Things also changed in the cold war, where MAD had to lead to good crisis management What is an International Crisis ?  Hermann - you need 3 components : o Surprise o A perception of threat o A short decision time  It was something that is catches us off guard, is seen as a danger to us  Ex: 9/11, Syrian Crisis, Cuban Missile Crisis  This is also known as the decision cube  International Crisis has two types of explanations o Situational  The structure of the crisis, and the structure of the system o Behavioural  The specific qualities of decisions & decision makers Game Theory: The Chicken Game  2 by 2 the outcomes are: Crash if both go straight, tie, if both swerve, if one or the other swerves they are declared chicken o USSR and the United States : Swerved away from the crisis  The best way to play this game theory is to do the opposite of what your opponent does  Ex: if they swerve, you go straight  However, you don't know which actor will change  This is the most stable however  Chicken summary o There is no dominant strategy  You have to act quick because there is little decision making time  We want to do the opposite of what our opponent does  It is a high risk game that is hard to play  Best way to play chicken is to avoid it  You try to avoid this situation by influencing our opponent  The rationality of irrationality  North Korea  Is playing a game of chicken  Being crazy or being seen as crazy can get you things in IR  It is the policy of pushing a dangerous situation to the brink of disaster to achieve the must advantageous outcome by forcing the opposition to make concessions The Cuban Missile Crisis  1959 - Castro controls Cuba o 1960 - JFK elected president o 1961- The bay of Pigs - invasion of Cuba that was an absolute disaster o 1962 - USSR decided to introduce nuclear missiles to Cuba  US had missiles in Turkey that could target Russia  However, the USSR could not target the American cities o 16th of October - U2 stealth plane detected nuclear weapons in Cuba  The US believed that there were 13 days until the Nuclear Missiles were armed o JFK  Created the EXCOM  20 policy makers to make decisions  They were suppose to have constant meetings and the president was not a member  He would get recordings of the discussions The possible American Responses:  Ignore the missiles o They can bomb cities in Europe, does it make a difference that they can bomb American Cities  Play chicken  Use Diplomacy o There was not enough time and if the missiles become operational, you'll loose faith  Surgical Bombing o Have the Americans take out all of the missiles  However, it would be a declaration of war  This could lead to greater disaster  Invasion o Didn't like Castro anyways  However, you’ve already failed before and you would start another war
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