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Lecture 21.docx

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Political Science
Lilach Gilady

Lecture 21 Theory description explanation tool for generating predictions In order to be able to predict we need to be able to describe and understand the past and the present Can we extrapolate If we see two democracies talking to each other we can predict they are not going to fight each other since theyfre both democracies peaceful ways By describing and explaining patterns of behaviour happening in past and present we might predict if our tools have any merits Three futures 1 The west has wonend of history 2 The clash of civilization 3 Globalization and fragmentation Russett Star Kinsella We need to differentiate between changes of the system and changes within a system Within the system suggest that rules stay more or less the same but balance of power Lecture 21 changes Maybe the US is not the hegemon and China is but there is still a hegemony same patterns same states same anarchy same world state system The changes within the system might be very big but do not alter the system itself The system can change itself too though Moving to a completely different structure Rodrikfs trilemma true global federalism would change the system itself and within 1 The west has won Francis Fukuyama Democracymarket capitalismas good as it gets no more room for progress This is the best way to organise a society when you combine them you get stable outcomes and maximum efficiency It is so good we canft progress anymore Emerged in the last years of Cold War The end of history is at times a misleading title Very triumphant theory When he says that it is the end of history he means another meaning of history
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