POL208Y1 Lecture : Lecture 21.docx

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31 Mar 2012
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In order to be able to predict, we need to be able to describe and understand the past and the present. If we see two democracies talking to each other, we can predict they are not going to fight each other since they(cid:129)fre both democracies (peaceful ways). By describing and explaining patterns of behaviour happening in past and present, we might predict if our tools have any merits. Three futures: the west has won - end of history, the clash of civilization, globalization and fragmentation (russett, star, kinsella) We need to differentiate between changes of the system and changes within a system. Within the system suggest that rules stay more or less the same, but balance of power. Maybe the us is not the hegemon and china is, but there is still a hegemony, same patterns, same states, same anarchy, same world state system. The changes within the system might be very big, but do not alter the system itself.

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