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POL208Y1 NOV 22.docx

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
Lilach Gilady

POL208Y1DETERENCE NUCLEARRonald Reagans Star Wars initiative 1983 to develop the technology necessary to create a military shield against nuclear warfare Scientific community thought it to be ridiculous because of the technological complexities of such an act The USSR never intended to knock down 90 Said they were dealing with the missiles remaining from the USADETERENCE IF YOU WANT PEACE PREPARE FOR WARthe realist view Assumes rationality and predictability backwards inductionFor deterrence to work the threat has to be credible the signals have to be clear and credible and to be understood as such by the target china in Koreaconvince the other side that they will counteract The target has to be deterrable terrorismDETERENCE THROUGH PUNISHMENT CUBA UNABLE TO DEFEND A MILITARY ENVASIONConventional deterrence nuclear deterrence WaltzDirect deterrence extended deterrence usually through an alliance NATO SEATO CENTO ATTACK ON NATOmassive international counteraction STATES MUST BE WILLING TO TAKE BLUFFS YOU CANNOT DETER TERRORISTSThey can obtain weapons of mass destruction They are hidden and are UNdeterrable because of that Proportionality NO Even a conventional attack has repercussions 194549 USA has nuclear monopolyDeterring communist actionsEISENHOWER massive retaliation KOREAKENNEDYFlexible response Cubaattempts to expand soviet influence would not be met by nuclear retaliation in hopes that this would not escalade to nuclear confrontation Nixon Dtente SALT Ilessening of tension between two adversariesthe strategic arms limitations clause that both USSR and USA recognize the current arrangement and power distribution was stable
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