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Lecture 12

Lecture 12 (October 23rd, 2012)

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Department
Psychology
Course
PSY100H1
Professor
Ashley Waggoner Denton
Semester
Fall

Description
Lecture 12 (October 23 , 2012) rd We  use  these  heuristics,  these  cognitive  shortcuts  that  are  really  helpful  because  they  all▯ow  us   to  have  the  answers  really  quickly  and  very  rarely  do  they  lead  us▯  astray.     Representative  Heuristic:     It  makes  judgments  of  likelihood  based  on  how  similar  the  person  o▯r  object  is  to  our  prototype   for  that  category.   • For  example,  Linda  is  31  years  old,  single,  outspoken,  and  very  bright.  She  majored  in   philosophy.  As  a  student,  she  was  concerned  with  issues  of  discrimination  and  social   justice,  and  also  participated  in  antinuclear  demonstrations.  Which  is▯  more  likely?   o Linda  is  a  bank  teller.   o Linda  is  a  bank  teller  and  is  active  in  the  feminist  movement.   • Most  of  of  us  would  go  wit  the  latter,  because  her  description  is  close  to  a  feminist,   but  it  can’t  possibly  be  true.  This  is  conjunction  fallacy.     With  representative  heuristics  we’re  ignoring  base  rates  (the  frequency  of  an  event  occurring).   If  we  choose  B,  we  are  ignoring  this  part  of  the  information  that  being  a  ban▯k  teller  is  a  much   broader  category  and  much  more  unlikely  for  her  to  a  bank  teller▯  and  a  feminist.     Conjunction  fallacy:  Find  description  in  slides.     We  were  asked  what  percentage  of  African  nations  belong  to  the  UN.  Is  it  greater  or  less  than   65%  it  asked  us?  Another  group  was  given  the  number  10%.  Then  we  we▯re  asked  to  think  of  the   percentage.  We  use  that  number,  depending  on  which  one  it  was,  as  an  anchor  then  we  adjust   in  some  way.  For  example,  the  10%  would  go  high  a  little  bit,  maybe  around  35%  percent,  and   while  the  higher  number  would  go  lower.  This  didn’t  happen  in  class  though.     Anchoring  Effects:     The  anchoring  effect  occurs  when  an  individual  attempts  to  solve  a▯  problem  involving  number   and  uses  previous  knowledge  to  keep  (i.e.  anchor)  the  response  wit▯hin  a  limited  range.   • For  example,  in  what  year  was  John  A.  MacDonald  born?  So  you  realize  that  it  w▯as   1857  when  Confederacy  was  born,  and  then  you  guess  Macdonald’s  age,  and  then   you  subtract.  You  use  Confederacy  as  a  starting  place.     Anchors  can  also  be  introduced  by  other  people  (not  just  internall▯y  generated).     Framing  Effects:     Framing  effects  refer  to  changes  in  the  way  information  is  per▯ceived  as  a  result  of  the  way  in   which  the  information  was  presented.   • For  example,  framing  a  decision  to  emphasize  either  the  potential  losses  or  the   potential  gains  of  a  decision  alternative.     For  example,  imagine  Canada  is  preparing  for  the  outbreak  of  a  disease  that▯  is  projected  to  kill   about  600  people.  We  need  to  choose  between  two  alternative  programs  for  combating  the   disease.   • Program  A:  200  people  will  be  saved.   • Program  B:  There  is  a  one-­‐third  probability  that  600  people  will  be  saved,  and  a  two-­‐ thirds  probability  that  no  one  will  be  saved.   o Most  people  will  go  with  program  A,  because  they  would  prefer  200  people   being  saved  and  knowing  for  sure  this  will  happen.   • Program  C:  400  people  will  die.   • There  is  a  one-­‐third  probability  that  nobody  will  die,  and  a  two-­‐third  probability  that   600  people  will  die.   o This  is  exactly  like  the  first  two  programs,  but  since  we  don’t  want  negative   things  happening,  we  choose  D,  because  of  how  the  question  is  formed.   You’d  rather  have  200  people  out  of  600  being  saving,  than  400  dying,  even   though  it’s  the  same  fucking  thing.   o The  “sure  thing”  is  an  attractive  alternative  for  people,  but  when  you  frame  it   in  a  negative  way,  people  will  go  for  the  most  positively  framed  problem.     People  like  sure  gains  and  dislike  sure  losses.     Prospect  theory:  It  takes  into  account  the  decisions  people  make.  Firstly,  it  depends  on  how   much  a  person  has  to  begin  with.  Secondly,  losing  is  much  worse  than  gaining  is  good.     Loss  aversion:  Losing  is  much  worse  than  gaining  is  good.  Thus,  people  try  to  avoid  situations   that  involve  loss.     Most  people  would  rather  earn  a  salary  exponentially  rather  than  ▯making  more  money  in   general  but  having  to  take  a  salary  cut  every  year  even  though  they▯  make  more  money  overall.     Imagine  the  Following…  (Example  T aken  from  Gilbert,  2005):     You  are  on  your  way  to  the  theatre,  and  in  your  pocket  you  have  your  ticket,  which  you  paid   $20  for  and  a  $20  bill.  Along  the  way,  you  lose  your  ticket.  Would  you  use  your  remaining  $20   to  buy  a  ticket?   • Most  people  would  not  replace  the  ticket.      You  are  on  your  way  to  the  theatre,  and  in  your  pocket  you  have  your  ticket,  which  you  paid   $20  for  and  two  $20  bill.  Along  the  way,  you  lose  your  second  $20.  Would  you  use  your   remaining  $20  to  buy  a  ticket?   • Most  people  say  yes  to  this,  which  is  fucking  crazy,  because  it’s  the  same  concept  as
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