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SOC246H1 (58)

Lecture 4

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Markus Schafer

III The Demographic Transition Last week talk about stable population model which is a theoretical tool that is helpful for evaluating different types of populationWe now move from an analytical tool the stable population to an empirical pattern that has been observed very consistently The Demographic Transition refers to two shifts high to low mortality in the population followed by high to low fertility2 shifts that correspondent to one and anotherVietnam represents a good case study1950 high fertility rate and relatively low population growthHigh rate of fertility in this population also a high level of infant mortality may be due to lack of medical care Stalinization and other risks factors that may affect the children overall population grow isnt so high in that scenario1975 population boom sparked by growing infant survival rateLost of grow in the population the scale being different from the one in 1950sIf we compare the two figureit is about doublePopulation booming growing and there is also decrease in mortality fewer kids are dyingbetter hygiene better medical practices available doctorsMuch higher rate of survival2000 young population but declining fertility ratepopulation grows olderwe see a shift in the populationpopulation is still young but we see a decline in fertilitythe 0 category being smaller than the others2025 population is projected to resemble a stationary form similar to the New ZealandexamplePopulation having a stationary ideal typeShrinking base of the pyramidIf we look at the dependency ratiowhen is it most advantageouscreates proportion of working age 20 25 ageNature of dependency ratio transition quite of bit from the 1950 to the 1975 A lot of population goes to that transition phaseThere is a time when society has really advantageous dependency ratio those people are the product of better mortality in their infancy and better fertilityIV MigrationCan immigration offset population aging trendsPeople coming in or out of the population there has to have some influence of population ageThe stable population model and the demographic transition dont really say anything about migration itself Focus on mortality and fertilityWhat influence does migration have on age structureWe have the issue that the population are growing older we see a shiftdependency ratio towards an older population Is younger rejuvenation bringing younger people of the population can helpTypical patterntends to make a population younger only in the short term In long term seem to not have a strong influence on population agingHow immigration can have a long term influence on population how will that be possibleImmigration can counteract longterm population aging ifmake a population younger 1There is an ever increasing flow of immigrants orevery year having Increasingly larger number of immigrants that way possible long term reversal of population agingIt should be said that Immigration tends to be concentrate among people that are younger than the median age Ex In Canada there is only 2 or 3 of immigrants that are 65 yo and over
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