Lecture 4

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3 Feb 2012
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III. The Demographic Transition
Last week talk about stable population model, which is a theoretical tool that is
helpful for evaluating different types of population.
We now move from an analytical tool (the stable population) to an empirical pattern
that has been observed very consistently
The Demographic Transition refers to two shifts: high to low mortality in the
population, followed by high to low fertility2 shifts that correspondent to one and
another
Vietnam represents a good case study.
- 1950: high fertility rate and relatively low population growth
High rate of fertility in this population, also a high level of infant mortality
may be due to lack of medical care, Stalinization and other risks factors that
may affect the children
overall population grow isn’t so high in that scenario
- 1975: population boom sparked by growing infant survival rate
Lost of grow in the population, the scale being different from the one in
1950s
If we compare the two figureit is about double
Population booming (growing) and there is also decrease in mortality fewer
kids are dying ( better hygiene, better medical practices, available doctors)
Much higher rate of survival
- 2000: young population, but declining fertility rate -- population grows older
we see a shift in the populationpopulation is still young but we see a decline
in fertility
the 0 category being smaller than the others
- 2025: population is projected to resemble a stationary form (similar to the
New Zealand example)
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Population having a stationary ideal type
Shrinking base of the pyramid
If we look at the dependency ratio when is it most advantageous , creates
proportion of working age 20- 25 age
Nature of dependency ratio transition quite of bit from the 1950 to the 1975.
A lot of population goes to that transition phase
There is a time when society has really advantageous dependency ratio, those
people are the product of better mortality in their infancy and better fertility
IV. Migration
Can immigration offset population aging trends?
People coming in or out of the population there has to have some influence of
population age
The stable population model and the demographic transition don’t really say
anything about migration itself Focus on mortality and fertility
What influence does migration have on age structure?
We have the issue that the population are growing older we see a shift ,
dependency ratio, towards an older population. Is younger rejuvenation (bringing
younger people) of the population can help
Typical pattern: tends to make a population younger only in the short term. In long
term seem to not have a strong influence on population aging
How immigration can have a long term influence on population how will that be
possible.
Immigration can counteract long-term population aging if ( make a population
younger)
1) There is an ever increasing flow of immigrants, or
every year having Increasingly larger number of immigrants that way
possible long term reversal of population aging
It should be said that Immigration tends to be concentrate among people that
are younger than the median age. Ex: In Canada, there is only 2 or 3% of
immigrants that are 65 y.o. and over
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The large proportion of immigrants that come to Canada are below middle
age people coming in to study, to work, to start a career, people bringing
children, that will inflay the number of young people entering the population
But not really realistic about the every year increasing
2) fertility is higher among immigrants
if immigrants come to country and have high rated of fertility
Fertility rate tends to converge over a generation or two to norms and
averages of the host country itself
You could rejuvenate a population that is aging by bringing in younger
immigrants by this process
Ex: Vienne in Austria After the WWII, became one of the oldest city in term of their
population and there were very little migration coming in. Then in the 1990s,
communist block eastern Europe and suddenly there was a large influx of people
leaving eastern Europe into areas in western Europe. Places like Vienna, we
suddenly see this great influx of people coming. Population was becoming much
younger without the fertility rate being change at all. So it wasn’t the case that
Austria had more kids but instead a rapid sergehuge influx on people coming in
the city or Vienna (rejuvenation of pop.)
European countries was interested In Strategy to rejuvenate their society
In 2000, the United Nations issued a report entitled “Replacement Migration: Is it a
Solution to Declining Aging Populations?” (reliable strategy)
No we cannot revive an aging population by only bringing immmigrants
The overall conclusion of the report was that: “inflows of migrants will not be able to
prevent population declines in the future, nor rejuvenate a population” (UN
Population Division, 2000, pg. 11) – the level of migration to slow population aging
is not realistic for most aging nations.
V. Conclusions and general considerations about population aging
(1) Population aging primarily due to mortality is quite different from population
aging primarily due to fertility decline.
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