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Lecture 4

SOC246 Lecture 4 notes.

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University of Toronto St. George
Markus Schafer

Sociology of AgingClass NotesWinter 2012 Class 4I Global Variation in Population Aging2000 more developed nationsover 14 of population is over 65 in the developing world nearly 4 of the population is over 65 In 2050 it is expected that 27 of individuals will be 65 in more developed nations and 14 in less developed nations however raw totals show 316 million people in more developed nations and 1140 million in less developed nations over 65 years oldReview demographic transitionType A Pattern Mimics a Western routeStage 1 will have high birth and death rates in stage 2 the birthrate remains high for a period of time while ththe death rate falls off dramatically later 1920 century will see a drop off in fertility stage 3 and then a balance of both rates stage 4 However now a stage beyond the fourth stage is being observedsubreplacement fertility rates more deaths than births Life expectancy increased dramatically as well above projected estimates of 75 Wars epidemics etc can still affect populations they are also not uniform pattern does not look the same across countries Type B pattern nationshigh fertility rate and smaller drop in mortality than observed in Type A nations This pattern is seen in subsaharan Africa effects of AIDS epidemic Time frame is compressed pace of change is much smaller than type A nationspopulation aging differs greatly in comparison with other nations such as England Classic view Shift from high fertilityhigh mortality to low fertilitylow mortality In Western Europe and North America demographers initially predicted that the trend would be quite manageablethey foresaw a gradual and nearly concurrent decrease in both mortality and fertilityMany people expected that the proportion of people 65 would not exceed 20
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