SOC246H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Dependency Ratio, Population Ageing, Demographic Transition

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20 Apr 2012
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SOC246 Lecture 4 2/1/2012 8:08:00 AM
III. The demographic transition
regularly occurring empirical pattern
describe regular pattern simple concept two shifts
two shifts: shift from high to low mortality, followed by shit from
Vietnam: 1950 high rates of fertility and high level of mortality (children
too); 1975 growth in population fertility rate doubled; decrease in
mortality; better medical practices, etc
year 2000, see population is still young but you also see a decline in fertility
2025 you see emergence of population that has a stationary 2050 and
2075, you see low rates of fertility creating smaller and shrinking lower rates
of fertility 1950 to 2075 population is youngest around 1975 and oldest
after 2050 population at its oldest then
around 2025 projected that Vietnam will have the most advantageous
dependency ratios
1950 most people that were dependents are in the young category in 2050
and 2075, you see emergence of old
representative of what other populations go through
IV. Migration
people coming in and out of country influences demographics
Canada has 200 000 immigrants entering every year
what influence does immigration have on age structure?
typical pattern: younger only in the short run
immigration can make a population younger long-term if…
- there is an ever-increasing flow of immigrants
- fertility is higher among immigrants
only 2-3% of immigrants that come in that are 65% and older
over one or two generations the fertility patterns converge to the norms and
averages of the host country
you could rejuvenate a population by bringing in younger immigrants
Vienna after ww2 it became one of the oldest cities in terms of population
little immigration coming in
1990s, you had a large influx of people moving out of Asia into Europe
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politicians became interested in using this as a strategy to rejuvanate areas
2000 U.N report: "replacement migration: is it a solution to declining and
ageing populations?
answer: no
even if you keep a stable population of working age people of immigration
for the next 25 years, you end up with germany where over 1/3 by 2050
would be immigrants or descendants of immigrants
V. conclusions and general considerations
(1) population aging primary due to mortality decline is quite different from
population aging primarily due to fertility decline
- if you’re only addressing fertility, it doesn’t say anything about the actual
condition of those people when they’re older
(2) population aging trends provide rationale for reconsidering age eligibility
for retirement and pension funds
- assume there’s one person of every age in this population – typical cutoff
for age eligibility is 65 unexpected back in the 50s the possibility of people
living till the age of 85
- calculation of old age dependency ratio - OADR 10(#age65+)/50(#age15-
64)=0.2
- same age cutoff but we have people living till 84 (20 years) and make that
same calculation of old age dependency ratio you get 0.4
20(#age65+)/50(#age15-64)=0.4
- how do you keep a consistent OADR assuming they live past their 84th
birthday
- you would have to increase the age eligibility of retirement to 73 you
gain 8 years of people working and cuts down on number of years that
people are out of productive age
- 12(#age65+)/58(#age15-64)=0.21
(3) Estimates of future population patterns are projections (forecasts), not
predictions
Statistics Canada has three projections for population aging by 2026
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