Class Notes (838,807)
Canada (511,107)
Sociology (3,264)
SOC246H1 (58)
Lecture 4

SOC246 Lecture 4.docx

6 Pages
Unlock Document

Markus Schafer

SOC246 Lecture 4 2/1/2012 8:08:00 AM III. The demographic transition regularly occurring empirical pattern describe regular pattern – simple concept – two shifts two shifts: shift from high to low mortality, followed by shit from Vietnam: 1950 high rates of fertility and high level of mortality (children too); 1975 growth in population – fertility rate doubled; decrease in mortality; better medical practices, etc year 2000, see population is still young but you also see a decline in fertility – 2025 you see emergence of population that has a stationary – 2050 and 2075, you see low rates of fertility creating smaller and shrinking lower rates of fertility – 1950 to 2075 – population is youngest around 1975 and oldest after 2050 – population at its oldest then around 2025 projected that Vietnam will have the most advantageous dependency ratios 1950 most people that were dependents are in the young category – in 2050 and 2075, you see emergence of old representative of what other populations go through IV. Migration people coming in and out of country influences demographics Canada has 200 000 immigrants entering every year – what influence does immigration have on age structure? typical pattern: younger only in the short run immigration can make a population younger long-term if… - there is an ever-increasing flow of immigrants - fertility is higher among immigrants only 2-3% of immigrants that come in that are 65% and older over one or two generations the fertility patterns converge to the norms and averages of the host country you could rejuvenate a population by bringing in younger immigrants Vienna – after ww2 it became one of the oldest cities in terms of population – little immigration coming in 1990s, you had a large influx of people moving out of Asia into Europepoliticians became interested in using this as a strategy to rejuvanate areas 2000 U.N report: "replacement migration: is it a solution to declining and ageing populations? answer: no even if you keep a stable population of working age people of immigration for the next 25 years, you end up with germany where over 1/3 by 2050 would be immigrants or descendants of immigrants V. conclusions and general considerations (1) population aging primary due to mortality decline is quite different from population aging primarily due to fertility decline - if you’re only addressing fertility, it doesn’t say anything about the actual condition of those people when they’re older (2) population aging trends provide rationale for reconsidering age eligibility for retirement and pension funds - assume there’s one person of every age in this population – typical cutoff for age eligibility is 65 – unexpected back in the 50s the possibility of people living till the age of 85 - calculation of old age dependency ratio - OADR 10(#age65+)/50(#age15- 64)=0.2 - same age cutoff but we have people living till 84 (20 years) and make that same calculation of old age dependency ratio – you get 0.4 20(#age65+)/50(#age15-64)=0.4 th - how do you keep a consistent OADR assuming they live past their 84 birthday - you would have to increase the age eligibility of retirement to 73 – you gain 8 years of people working and cuts down on number of years that people are out of productive age - 12(#age65+)/58(#age15-64)=0.21 (3) Estimates of future population patterns are projections (forecasts), not predictions Statistics Canada has three projections for population aging by 2026(a) high-growth scenerio: 1.8 fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of 81.5 (men) and 85 (women) (b) medium growth scenerio: 1.48 fertility rate, life expectancy of 80 and 84 (c) low-growth scenario: 1.3 fertility rate, life expectancy of 78.5 and 83.0 (4) The "old" of the future is not necessarily the same as today's "old" - the old won't be the same people that are occupying it today – health changes will mandate people in the future as we grow older Global variability in % and numbers, people 65 and over - year 2000, world populations, 7% of the world population are 65 and older - compare more developed, 14% of those populations are 65 and older and less developed they’re 5-7% - 1975 there were more older people in more developed than less developed (119 in more developed vs 113 million) -2050 less developed 1140 million and more developed is 316 million pattern is expected to be the same – but raw numbers are shifting – 27% in last column of 2050, demographic transition – compare death rates and birth rates in a population th 1800 - high fertility, high mortality (stage 1 – first part of 19century) 1840-1850 - decrease in death rate - better hygiene, medical technology, etc - contribute to drop in death rate (stage 2 – high fertility rate) 1890-1910 – drop in fertility that matches the drop of mortality rates (stage 3) 1970 onward – drop in mortality matches drop in fertility (stage 4)
More Less

Related notes for SOC246H1

Log In


Join OneClass

Access over 10 million pages of study
documents for 1.3 million courses.

Sign up

Join to view


By registering, I agree to the Terms and Privacy Policies
Already have an account?
Just a few more details

So we can recommend you notes for your school.

Reset Password

Please enter below the email address you registered with and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Add your courses

Get notes from the top students in your class.