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Soc 246- Class 3.odt

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Markus Schafer

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Soc 246 –Aging Class 3 Reading Misconceptions and misapprenhensions about population ageing • Emergence of neo-liberal policies and dismantling of hte public provision of health and soical services and programmes • neo liberalism represents an accomodation tot he primacy of the indidviudl efforts to ensure their own well-being and demphasis of conceptulaisaition of and commitment to shared risk, rights of citienship and the common good --- population ageing has palyed fundamental role in this transition • the public cots of population ageing- particularly regarding health and pensions are unsustainedable wihtout welfare state 'reform' Dimensions of 'popluation ageing as crisis' thinking th • historical precedence for demographic scapegoating in the 20 century Examples of demographic alarmism Example 1 • Canada wanted reproductive control- it was the way to preseve and improve the white race • Canada try to lower the fertility of non-white race and less socially desirable whites (eastern europeans) • in the 20 century, the people who seem “unfit” where of aBORIGINALORGINS • Non-Anglo origin population were concerns – result in Oriental exclusionAct in 1920 • their work in the social and economic changes assoicated iwth industrilziastion an dmodernization, fertiliity and migration were used to preserve an earlier version of soiety Example 2 • “populaion bomb” following the WW2 • the north defined this growth as a bomb- a crisis of huge proportion • lots of money was put into birth control- would lower the number of children that sourthern women would have and assumption that lower rates of population growht woud stimulate ecomoic growth • the birth control movement failed – fertility was not lower • the birth control movement reframed from being attracted to soviet development models- uscces in one thing • • these examples are used to reconstuct and redine soical problmes that fits a political agenda or with current and populat ideological position • Reason- these demographic phenonmenon and proujcetions are viewed as having a scientidi certinaity that is not subject to question The uncertanity of demographic projections • demographic projections about the numbers and percentage of future elderly are based on assimpton about fertility, morality and net migration levels in the future • there are uncertainities about the future levels of morality, fertiity and net migration • -- morality may not improve as much as projection assume based on trends i new and emerging diseases • advances in genetic engineering/molecular biology may lead to significa timporemnts in morality • future fertility levels are hard to predict, it is subject to a complex interaction of forces • many changes could alter fertiity –e.g. Family friendly policies in workplaces, changes in laws affecting access to abortion and trends toward nationaism/patriotism – could increase fertility • fertility is the major determinant of age structure, any substantial increase would delay population aging. • • • population projections are dependent on the assumption upon which they are basedm three projections-termed high, medium and low variants are ususally calculated by demographers • even using medium- variant assumption, different agencies can proudce quite differen projections Reliance on dependency ratios • dependency ratios measure the ratio of people in so called dependent ages to epople in the working ages of 15 (or 18, 20) to 6. • these dependent age group can be separated to contruct a youth depenency ratio and an aged dependency traio with their sum equalling the total dependency ratio • crisis thinkers focus on the aged dependency ratio, and see a substantial inxrease over the past decades --- espeically c
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