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SOC312 – January 21.docx

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Brent Berry

SOC312 – January 21, 2014 Chapter 3 – Population: Past, Present, and Futures Population History  Today, actually 7billion now.  Developedtools, andavailable to settlement, but not until in 1750s,huge populationsgrow occurred.  Talk about what kind of thingsin humansociety since1750s.In the20 century, most dramatic happenedin termsof population growth many partsof world.  Agestructures,still remainsyoung; mortality ratedeclinesalot. Table1(slide3) –showstheinformation about thedifferencesbetweentheworlds of major vs. minor • ‘Mid’ year, MDC (MoreDevelopedCountries), LDC (LessDevelopedCountries) • Chinaaffectednumbers,andit’s suchapopulatedcountry. • Moredevelopedor industrializedcountry, really are20%of theworld population. • Continent ofAsia is thelargest continent world andconsists60%of theworld population (fairly dense,but not denserin theworld). • 20 century is really successesto thepopulation growth  ‘reproductive’ success. • Natureincrease= basedondifferencebetweenbirth anddeath (birth –death). • Moredevelopedcountriesin theworld hasrelatively lower fertility ratethan developing countries. *Why doesdeath rateper 1,000populationstend moredevelopedcountries,but only aging lessin developing countries?Death rateis lower in wealthier countriesandwhy might death rateis higher in moredevelopedcountries? Youthfulness.Age structurein lessdevelopedcountries; andbasically despitebeing therelatively poor country deathrateis substantially lower in younger, aleast like dying before20s(lesslikely to dieuntil you start driving), lesssubstantial countries; ageandsexpyramid is muchwider comparedto therich countries(higher top). • Deathsper 1,000 populationsdon’t addressthedifferent agestructuresbetween developedanddeveloping countries. • Infrastructurehealth system, food, accessto resources- reducethedeath • Rateof natural increase,population-doubling time(how long doesit taketo doubled?), wealthy countriestake700yearsto get population doubled? • Particularly Eastern Europe,fertility ratedramatically decreasedueto the economic dislocationsandconstruction changes. • GNI PPPper capita–comparecountriesabout thepurchasing power of each country (what peoplecanbuy in average,in termsof USdollars). Lotsof variation in density andpopulation is not equally distributedeverywherearoundtheworld  long history why it takesplace. FromGradual toExplosiveGrowth o Nicesummary of humanpopulation growth (Figure3.1), during theindustrial revolution, theworld population increaseddramatically. What society, what humanpopulation different world but Euro-central view occurred. o Brokeninto thedifferent period  old stoneage–new stoneage–bronzeage (learning how to extract from metalsontheground, createtools) –iron age– middle ages–modern times(period of timewherewe seemost growth); 40years after it doubles. o Thereasonwhy increasethehumanpopulation growth  socially, culturally, technical, political, learning thingsabout thedifferencescities,how to live in cities,learn thingsabout public health, disease,andsurplusof food (moreequally distributed), certain typesof economy, politic, government structure, information of protection “MODERNATION” leadsto contributepopulation growth in the world (aswell aspsychological aspect, people’sthink about thewaysof living). o Figure3.2 (populationgrowth over last 65k years) –Population growth over 65,000years.  Seasonal variation (very harshweather), animals, natureandclimate, variability of food.  Growth period: 1million (seasonal growth) ▯ 10million (developing basic tools, basic understandof agriculturethat try to get surplus) –not ahuge increaseof population. Slide7(World Populationestimate) • Notecrisis mortality between1300-1400 increasingly traderoutebetween EuropeandAsia, movement of Mediterraneanandpandemic disease. • Population of Europe, thingsgoing quite well between 1000 and1300, but Black Death happenandleading to impact thehumanpopulation (decline!). • Black death (video) –14 to 17 in Europe,death of hundredsof millions, bleeding, andfew daysbecomedeath. Population death over 15millions. Sciencehelpsto understandthedisease. • University, Institutionsandprotectionsopenly great level of success. • Population growth andsociety hasbeenurbanized; tradebecomesmajor sourceof economic growth. TheDemographicTransition–keyideaofstudypopulation 1) Classical transitionmodel - First period: high ratesof birth anddeath, population grow very well, lotsof children, weather, environment or economy andother thingsarenot asuitablefor somepeople. High levelsof fertility andmortality = very low population growth. - Early expanding: not family-based,work doneoutsideof home,producesurplus of food, improveimmunesystem, morebabiessurvive (mortality) fertility remains high andmortality startedto decline; fertility that something remain high, this thingsareslower to change.Thedifferent betweenpopulation andbirth rate…? Tells thehow muchnatureincrease. - Lateexpanding: early industrial period, still haven’t developedmodern-urban society, fertility ratedeclines,andchildrenaremorelikely to survive, eventhough relatively high mortality, but peoplearechanging expectationsthat their babies will survive for sure(start to namechildren; in past, peopletendnot to nametheir children). - Last stage: Similar to death rate(fertility), manyplaceslike Canada,western Europe,U.S. areconsideredasthefinal stageof transition model. - But not all countriesfollow theexact transition model. 2) Caseof industrializedcountries Figure3.5 - Timescalevariesalot by different societies. - England(civil war), Japan,France,variability of population changesover time. - Sweden,hugedifferencesbetweencrudebirth rateanddeath rate. - Japan,major increasein death rateduring theWWII. - Variability of birth anddeath over timefor eachcountry  different experiencesof demographic transition model. - Paceandsourcesof mortality  main differences - Knowing how diseasesaretransmitted, innovation onagriculture, improve machines,harvest morefood  is theway to reducemortality. - Somecountries,hugeamount of mortality but increaseof fertility. - Nowadays, ‘over-population’  peoplethink of reducing thepopulation? 3) Caseof developingcountries  Differencesfrom theWest: moreyoung adultsin fertility agesandgreater level of population growth “momentum” th  International migration –playedimportant rule in Europeback in 17to 19 century, hugeflow of migration. It is major sourceof population growth in Western countries.Low-statuspeoplemoveto thesecountriesfor economy opportunity, better life, andavoiding political andregion conflicts. 4) Transitional anddelayedtransitioncountries(Fig3.7) –lessdeveloped countries 5) Mechanismsofdemographictransition: Western andNon-Western Cases(since 1950s) - Somereasonswhy demographic transition happen? - Endogenous(thingshappenwithin society; innovation andstructural change) vs. exogenousforces(thingshappenfrom outsidethecountry) - Developing countries,exogenous(outsideintervention in aid andassistance) reducefertility relatively quickly. Therefore, they alsohaveperiod for pretty dramatic popu
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