SOC312 – January 21, 2014
Chapter 3 – Population: Past, Present, and Futures
Today, actually 7billion now.
Developedtools, andavailable to settlement, but not until in 1750s,huge
Talk about what kind of thingsin humansociety since1750s.In the20 century,
most dramatic happenedin termsof population growth many partsof world.
Agestructures,still remainsyoung; mortality ratedeclinesalot.
Table1(slide3) –showstheinformation about thedifferencesbetweentheworlds
of major vs. minor
• ‘Mid’ year, MDC (MoreDevelopedCountries), LDC (LessDevelopedCountries)
• Chinaaffectednumbers,andit’s suchapopulatedcountry.
• Moredevelopedor industrializedcountry, really are20%of theworld population.
• Continent ofAsia is thelargest continent world andconsists60%of theworld
population (fairly dense,but not denserin theworld).
• 20 century is really successesto thepopulation growth ‘reproductive’ success.
• Natureincrease= basedondifferencebetweenbirth anddeath (birth –death).
• Moredevelopedcountriesin theworld hasrelatively lower fertility ratethan
*Why doesdeath rateper 1,000populationstend moredevelopedcountries,but only
aging lessin developing countries?Death rateis lower in wealthier countriesandwhy
might death rateis higher in moredevelopedcountries?
Youthfulness.Age structurein lessdevelopedcountries; andbasically despitebeing
therelatively poor country deathrateis substantially lower in younger, aleast like
dying before20s(lesslikely to dieuntil you start driving), lesssubstantial countries;
ageandsexpyramid is muchwider comparedto therich countries(higher top).
• Deathsper 1,000 populationsdon’t addressthedifferent agestructuresbetween
• Infrastructurehealth system, food, accessto resources- reducethedeath
• Rateof natural increase,population-doubling time(how long doesit taketo
doubled?), wealthy countriestake700yearsto get population doubled?
• Particularly Eastern Europe,fertility ratedramatically decreasedueto the
economic dislocationsandconstruction changes.
• GNI PPPper capita–comparecountriesabout thepurchasing power of each
country (what peoplecanbuy in average,in termsof USdollars). Lotsof variation
in density andpopulation is not equally distributedeverywherearoundtheworld
long history why it takesplace.
o Nicesummary of humanpopulation growth (Figure3.1), during theindustrial
revolution, theworld population increaseddramatically. What society, what
humanpopulation different world but Euro-central view occurred.
o Brokeninto thedifferent period old stoneage–new stoneage–bronzeage
(learning how to extract from metalsontheground, createtools) –iron age– middle ages–modern times(period of timewherewe seemost growth); 40years
after it doubles.
o Thereasonwhy increasethehumanpopulation growth socially, culturally,
technical, political, learning thingsabout thedifferencescities,how to live in
cities,learn thingsabout public health, disease,andsurplusof food (moreequally
distributed), certain typesof economy, politic, government structure, information
of protection “MODERNATION” leadsto contributepopulation growth in the
world (aswell aspsychological aspect, people’sthink about thewaysof living).
o Figure3.2 (populationgrowth over last 65k years) –Population growth over
Seasonal variation (very harshweather), animals, natureandclimate,
variability of food.
Growth period: 1million (seasonal growth) ▯ 10million (developing basic
tools, basic understandof agriculturethat try to get surplus) –not ahuge
• Notecrisis mortality between1300-1400 increasingly traderoutebetween
EuropeandAsia, movement of Mediterraneanandpandemic disease.
• Population of Europe, thingsgoing quite well between 1000 and1300, but
Black Death happenandleading to impact thehumanpopulation (decline!).
• Black death (video) –14 to 17 in Europe,death of hundredsof millions,
bleeding, andfew daysbecomedeath. Population death over 15millions.
• University, Institutionsandprotectionsopenly great level of success.
• Population growth andsociety hasbeenurbanized; tradebecomesmajor
sourceof economic growth.
1) Classical transitionmodel
- First period: high ratesof birth anddeath, population grow very well, lotsof
children, weather, environment or economy andother thingsarenot asuitablefor
somepeople. High levelsof fertility andmortality = very low population growth.
- Early expanding: not family-based,work doneoutsideof home,producesurplus
of food, improveimmunesystem, morebabiessurvive (mortality) fertility remains
high andmortality startedto decline; fertility that something remain high, this
thingsareslower to change.Thedifferent betweenpopulation andbirth rate…?
Tells thehow muchnatureincrease.
- Lateexpanding: early industrial period, still haven’t developedmodern-urban
society, fertility ratedeclines,andchildrenaremorelikely to survive, eventhough
relatively high mortality, but peoplearechanging expectationsthat their babies
will survive for sure(start to namechildren; in past, peopletendnot to nametheir
- Last stage: Similar to death rate(fertility), manyplaceslike Canada,western
Europe,U.S. areconsideredasthefinal stageof transition model.
- But not all countriesfollow theexact transition model.
2) Caseof industrializedcountries
- Timescalevariesalot by different societies.
- England(civil war), Japan,France,variability of population changesover time.
- Sweden,hugedifferencesbetweencrudebirth rateanddeath rate. - Japan,major increasein death rateduring theWWII.
- Variability of birth anddeath over timefor eachcountry different experiencesof
demographic transition model.
- Paceandsourcesof mortality main differences
- Knowing how diseasesaretransmitted, innovation onagriculture, improve
machines,harvest morefood is theway to reducemortality.
- Somecountries,hugeamount of mortality but increaseof fertility.
- Nowadays, ‘over-population’ peoplethink of reducing thepopulation?
3) Caseof developingcountries
Differencesfrom theWest: moreyoung adultsin fertility agesandgreater level
of population growth “momentum”
International migration –playedimportant rule in Europeback in 17to 19
century, hugeflow of migration. It is major sourceof population growth in
Western countries.Low-statuspeoplemoveto thesecountriesfor economy
opportunity, better life, andavoiding political andregion conflicts.
4) Transitional anddelayedtransitioncountries(Fig3.7) –lessdeveloped
5) Mechanismsofdemographictransition: Western andNon-Western Cases(since
- Somereasonswhy demographic transition happen?
- Endogenous(thingshappenwithin society; innovation andstructural change) vs.
- Developing countries,exogenous(outsideintervention in aid andassistance)
reducefertility relatively quickly. Therefore, they alsohaveperiod for pretty