TRN125Y1 Lecture Notes - Contact Tracing, Roll-Off, Herd Immunity
22 Jan 2013
School
Department
Course
Professor
Document Summary
Infectious disease modelling: sir model, basic reproduction number r0, 2 states to show why ppl use modelling: Stochastic models where something happens out of the blue. Tool for the analysis of policy options- to come up with good policy options, use mathematical modelling constantly developed. Reasons why mathematical modelling became so popular: 1) complexity of infectious disease dynamics. Complexity not simple to understand and they are diff for diff diseases. Transmission of infectious diseases involves contact between individual and someone else, interaction between age, enviro, agents, ease of transmission a system that is pretty complex and has many diff dimensions/dynamics. Virulence can change, enviro can change, contact can change and it is this complexity that makes modelling so good to use. Using model doesn"t mean you have to address that question all over again can just change that one factor (ex: population became 10 million) and put that into model and it will spit out new answer.
