TRN125Y1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Disease, Compartmental Models In Epidemiology, Smallpox
26 May 2013
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Mechanistic description of the transmission-> trying to get a system that tells us how is transmission happening; how are things preceeding and if thigns change, what will it come up to. Connect the individual-level process of transmission with a population-level description (population goes up to 8 bill, arnaught might by 25) Detail requirements of all the dynamic processes (the dynamic processes are different symptomatic and asymptomatic) Focus on essential processes involved in shaping the epidemiology of an infectious disease (death rate matters, birth rates important) Hamer in 1906 used modelling to argue that an epidemic can come to an end. Kermack and mckendrick (1927) - basis for sir modelling and ro. Basic assumption: human population is subdivided into 3 groups: susceptible persons (s) infected persons (i) -> if they have acquired immunity, they"ll move to the r group removed persons (r) -> not longer part of the infectious disease. Movements in and out of these groups via:
