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Lecture 4

WDW346H1F Lecture Week 4 Oct 3rd.doc

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Woodsworth College Courses
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Ted Mock

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rd WDW346H1F Lecture Week 4 Oct 3 , 2012 The Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting Technique • Demand- how many of people we need • We consulting with senior managers- expert forecasting • Ask opinions: - Status differences- can be a barrier to communicate to group of experts - Shyness - Dominant personalities - Group think- no one wants to disagree with other people, everyone want to be in same page • Delphi Technique - The member of Delphi group, the expert you consulting with, never meet face to face, in fact they don’t know who else in the group - The whole thing is done through technology; email - First round of questions; being very specific- send reply to coordinator- coordinator analyze and summaries the data and send back them- and formulate then 2 ndround of question can take place; the Delphi people need to know which model you follow - The selection of expert is important - Heading for a consensus • Nominal group technique (exam) - Expert carefully selected - Experts are advise as to the topic and questions to be discussed - They may meet face to face but under very control condition- how much they talk to each other, what should they talk to each other; each one write down their idea on paper and the leader put the best idea on the board; briefly decide and a number beside, go point by point - Keep working your ways- focus on each individual idea. The group members are ask to identifies their 5 best ideas on the index card, and beside that they put the number of the idea, then you encourage each person to choose which one their like the best and the least best, and give them score beside, from that you can identify the top 5 be
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