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Lecture 10

Lecture 10: "Population Dynamics"

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Department
Biology
Course
Biology 2483A
Professor
Hugh Henry
Semester
Fall

Description
Ecology Lecture No. 10: Population Dynamics Thursday October 11 , 2012 Introduction: -Population dynamics describes the ways in which populations change in abundance over time. Population size changes as a result of four processes: Birth, death, immigration, and emigration. This can be simplified in the following equation: N t + 1N t B – D + I – E Where N istthe population size at time t. Patterns Of Population Growth: -Populations exhibit a wide range of growth patterns, including exponential growth, logistic growth, fluctuations, and regular cycles. These four patterns are not mutually exclusive. A single population can experience each of them at different times. Exponential Growth: -Exponential growth is where the population increases by a constant proportion at each point in time. When conditions are favorable, a population can increase exponentially for a limited time. When a species reaches a new area, exponential growth can occur if conditions are favorable. The population may grow exponentially until density-dependent factors regulate its numbers. Species such as the cattle egret colonize new regions by long-distance or jump dispersal events. Local populations then expand by short-distance dispersal events. Logistic Growth: -These populations first increase, then fluctuate by a small amount around the carrying capacity. Plots of real populations rarely match the logistic curve exactly. Logistic growth is used broadly to indicate any population that increases initially then levels off at the carrying capacity. -For K (carrying capacity) to be constant, birth rates and death rates must be constant over time at any given density. This rarely happens in nature. Birth and death rates do vary over time, thus we expect carrying capacity to fluctuate. Population Fluctuations: -In all populations, numbers rise and fall over time. Fluctuations can be deviations from a growth pattern, (e.g., the Tasmanian sheep population. or erratic - In Lake Erie phytoplankton populations, fluctuating abundance could reflect changes in environmental factors such as nutrient supplies, temperature, or predator abundance. Population Outbreak: -Population outbreak is where the number of individuals increases rapidly. An ongoing outbreak of the mountain pine beetle has killed hundreds of millions of trees across British Columbia. This has altered forest composition, and CO i2 released as the trees decay (17.6 megatons every year). Population Cycles: -Some populations have alternating periods of high and low abundance at regular intervals. Populations of small rodents, such as lemmings and voles, typically reach a peak every 3–5 years. Different factors may drive population cycles in rodents. For collared lemmings in Greenland, field studies and modeling indicated that the 4-year cycle is driven by predators, such as the stoat. In other studies, predator removal had no effect on population cycles. Factors driving population cycles may vary by place or species. -Some population cycles may stop if certain environmental factors change. Warmer winter temperatures affect snow conditions at high latitudes, making it more difficult for lemmings to feed and avoid predators. Their populations have stopped cycling every 3 to 4 years. Delayed Density Dependence: -Delayed density on dependence depicts delays in the effect that density has on population size. Commonly, the number of individuals born in a given time period is influenced by population densities that were present several time periods ago. Delayed density dependence can cause populations to fluctuate in size. For example, if the predator population is small, the prey population may increase, then the predators will increase, but with a time lag. Many predators may reduce the prey population, and then the predator population will decrease again. Population Extinctions: -The risk of extinction increases greatly in small populations. Fluctuations in growth rate, population size, and chance events can affect a population’s risk of extinction. The Geometric Growth Equation: -The geometric growth equation can include random variation in the finite rate of increase (λ). Random variation in environmental conditions can cause λ to change from year to year (good years and bad years for growth). Computer simulations for three populations allowed λ to fluctuate at random. Two of the populations recovered from low numbers, but one went extinct. Fluctuations increase the risk of extinction, and the degree of fluctuation is important. -The range of variation in λ is measured by the standard deviation (σ). σ = 0.2, 0.3% of populations went extinct in 70 years. σ = 0.4, 17% of populations went extinct. σ = 0.8, 53% of the populations went extinct. -When variable environmental conditions result in large fluctuations in growth rate, the risk of extinction increases. Small populations are at greatest risk. If the simulations are repeated using larger initial population sizes, there are fewer extinctions. These patterns have been observed in real populations. In bird populations on the Channel Islands in California, 39% of populations with less than 10 breeding pairs went extinct. No extinctions occurred in populations with over 1,000 breeding pairs (Jones
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