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2485 - Lec 12.docx

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School
Western University
Department
Biology
Course
Biology 2485B
Professor
Ben Rubin
Semester
Winter

Description
Lec 12 Radiation in atmosphere • Solar intensity/Milankovitch cycles • Aerosols • Tipping points (oceans) • Greenhouse gasses Amount of anthropogenic effects • Increasing over the years from 1950­2011 Why do we trust simulation models? • Calibration – constructing model functions based on observed data o Models reflect observed trends and problems • Validation – comparing model output to independent data (data not used for  calibration) • Sensitivity analysis – varying input data to see how much outputs change IPCC concludes – climate change and warming is happening  • We know about the climate from the past due to tree rings, isotopic analysis, ice  core analysis and many other proxies for temperature and atmospheric  concentration Climate proxies (ice cores) • Isotope ratio – ratio of deuterium isotopes is temperature dependent Global average temperature • Continual increasing in annual and decadal average temperature • Projections: RCP = Representative Concentration Pathways Regional temperatures • Greatest increase on land in the north hemisphere, South America, west Africa C
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