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Lecture 4

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Biology 2244A/B
Angela White

Lecture 4 Rare Event Rule - Under assumption, probability of observed event (P-VALUE) is small, conclude assumption is not correct Fundamentals - Event – collection of results of procedure - Simple event – outcome that cannot be broken down - Sample space – all simple events - Notation o P – probability o A,B,C – an event o P(A,B,C) – probability of event  Estimation – number of occurrences/number repetitions  Number of ways event can occur/number of different simple events (sample space)  Subjective probability – use knowledge to make probability - Law of large numbers - Lots of repetitions = closer to actual probability - Complement – of event A is A-bar; is the events that don’t occur o 1-A = A-bar - Rounding – 3 significant digits Addition Rules - Compound event – combining events o P(A or B) – probability of A or B occurring  Find probabilities that don’t overlap  Formal addition rule – P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) o Disjoint (mutually exclusive) – events cannot occur at same time  If t
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