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Economics 2152A/B
Ayoub Yousefi

Chapter 8, Business Cycle Business cycle vs. seasonal cycle Seasonal Cycle – output varies over the seasons, Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 not much concern with economies and raw data normally seasonally adjusted to remove the seasonality factor. Business Cycle – is due to Arthur Burns and Wesly Mitchell, measuring business cycle 1946, NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research, USA) Business Cycle Definition – Five points to make: 1. Aggregate economic activity vs. a single or a specific variable 2. Expansion- contraction vs. long-run trend 3. Comovement, the tendency that many macro-economic variables have regular and predictable patterns 4. Recurrent but not periodic 5. Persistent , when it happens it may last for a while (from about 1 year to 10 years) All Business cycles have some common features: a. The cyclical behaviour, direction - Pro cyclical (in the same direction) - Counter cyclical (in the opposite direction) - A cyclical (no clear pattern) b. The cyclical behaviour, timing
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