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Geo 1400 Lecture 4

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Geography 1400F/G
Don Lafreniere

Geo Lecture 4: Geography of Population: Fertility, Mortality, Distribution and Density and Migration Demography • Size and composition of populations o Age, sex, social status, ethnicity, religious affiliation, etc • Processes that influence composition of populations o Fertility, Mortality, Migration • Links between populations and the larger human environments of which they are a part • Population Geography: the study of the spatial component of demography Growth by the Numbers • World – 7.2 billion + 215,000 daily (1.1%) • India – 1.2 billion + 42,000 daily (1.24%) • China – 1.4 billion + 23,000 daily (0.61%) • Canada – 35.4 million + 1,000 daily (1.0%) World Population Growth • 20 century – “the century of population explosion” • Overwhelmingly occurring in developing countries World Population Distribution: • Very uneven distribution pattern • Some land areas are almost uninhabited • Others sparsely settled • Still others show very dense agglomeration • Majority of population congregate at lowland areas? o WHY? • Continental margins have the largest concentration of people o WHY? • Most clustered areas: E. Asia, S.Asia, Europe & NE US/SE Canada o WHY • Half of the world are urbanities o 2007 is the first year in human history when most people on Earth live in cities • Almost 90% of people live North of the equator o Between Tropic of Cancer (23 degrees N) and 55 degrees N • Alarge proportion occupy a small land surface o (90% on less than 20% of the land) Canada’s Population Distribution • Uneven distribution of Canada’s population th o 70% south of 49 parallel o Within 300km of border o 80% in cities o MTV (Montreal Toronto Vancouver) = 35% • Divided land o Ecumene (permantly populated part of land) vs. nonecumene (rural areas)  permanently inhabited land Measures of Population 3 core measures • Fertility – Population Growth – Mortality • Migration Fertility • Crude Birth Rate (CBR): total number of live births in a given period (year) for every 1,000 people already living o o 2013 World CBR = 18.9 births/1,000 population (255 births/minute) o 2013 Canada CBR = 10.28 births/1,000 population o 2013 China CBR = 12.25 births/1,000 population o Issues:  Doesn’t account for men, elderly women • General Fertility Rate (GFR): actual number of live births per 1,000 women in the fecund age range: o Ex. Those years in which a women has the ability to conceive (15-49) o o Issues:  Doesn’t consider age distribution  Not a lot of women give birth at age 15 or 49 • Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): average number of children a women in a 5 year age group will have o o Age ranges: 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-24, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 o More industrialized a society is  the later they have children • Total Fertility Rate (TFR): average number of children a woman will have as she passes through the fecund/childbearing years o o 2013 World TFR = 2.5 children/women o 2013 Canada TFR = 1.66 children/women o 2013 Children TFR = 1.66 children/women o Replacement Rate: 2.1-2.5  Rate that TFR needs to be at for rate to stay the same o Cant get the balance of the population distribution o Ex. Canada is not replacing ourselves through births, more so through immigration. Not the same in China though (more women in child bearing years) Factors Affecting Fertility • Biological Factors: o Age o Nutritional well-being o Diet • Economic Factors: o The decision to have children is essentially a cost-benefit decision • Cultural Factors: o Marriage o Contraceptive use o Abortion Mortality • Crude Death Rate (CDR): total number of deaths in a given period (year) for every 1,000 people living o o 2013 World CDR= 8 deaths/1,000 population o 2013 Canada CDR= 7 deaths/1,000 population o 2013 China CDR= 7 deaths/1,000 population o Issues:  Does not consider that probability of dying is related to age • Age-Specific Mortality Rate (ASMR): average number of deaths within a 5 year age group o o All age ranges, usually divided by sex o Useful for looking for trends of premature deaths, or a rising population • Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): number o deaths of infants under 1 year old per 1,000 live births in a year o o IMR and Life expectancy is a reflection of overall population health o Life Expectancy: average number of years to be lived from birth Factors Affecting Mortality • Whereas it is possible in principle for the human population to attain a CBR of 0 for an extended period of time, the same cannot be said for the CDR. • Life expectancy (LE) factors are more sensitive, driven by socio-economic status (SES) o Availability of food and good nutrition o Health care facilities o Working Conditions o Sanitation Natural Increase • Rate of Natural Increase (RNI): determined by subtracting the CDR from the CBR; thus it measures the rate of population growth o In 2013: world CDR was 8, CBR was 18.9, producing an RNI of 10.9 per 1,000 o Relatively constant in recent years o Aglobal measure only Population Structure • Fertility and Mortality (and thus RNI) is affected by the population structure o Age and Sex • Viewed as a population pyramid • • o World as a whole is growing – moderate growth o Congo  huge population growth o Canada  Bubble in middle is the baby boom  Next bubble down is the mini baby boom in mid 90’s  Baby boom: nature of society was changing, industrialization Government Policies • While many governments choose not to establish any formal policies, either because of indifference to the issue or because public opinion is divided others are: o Actively pro-natalist o Actively anti-natalist Pro-Natal Policies • Typically in place in countries o Dominated by a Catholic or Islamic theology (Ex. Italy, Iran) o Where politically dominant ethnic group is in danger of being numerically overtaken by an ethnic minority (Ex. Israel) o Where a larger population is perceived as necessary economically or strategically. (Ex. France, Canada?) • Case Study – France o France in the 1930s was worried that women didn’t want to have kids o Made women financial offers with families over 3 kids o Extreme measures: banning the selling of contraceptives o Fertility rate has risen o Many debate that this policy was a failure  Cost a lot of money  UN predicted France would not hit it’s goal o Conclusion:  58- 65 million  Lack of results, and cost  makes it a failure Canada as Pro-Natal • Universal Child Care Benefit: $100/month/child • Child Tax Credit: Up to $320/month/child • Supplements for low income: up to ~$500/month/child • RESP Grants- %500 to start, ~20% bonus each month + $100 • Parental Leave – 1 year (mom or dad can take it) • Canada Pension Plan credit for stay-at-home-parents • Subsidized day care (Quebec, PEI, others to follow…) Anti-Natal Policies • Since about 1960, many l
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