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2013-11-26 Population.docx

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Geography 2143A/B
Milford Green

Population November 26, 2013 World Births Diagram -While the world’s population continues to grow, the average number of children born to each woman has declined since 1990, despite advances in fertility treatment. -Fertility rate, 2006 -Average number of children each woman gives birth to in lifetime -population rates have fallen Moving from Rural to Urban -The move from rural to urban areas will continue -around 2007: world became more 50% rural, 50% urban..? Diagram -Tool making -Agricultural Revolution -Industrial Revolution -these three things allowed population to grow 4 major population nodes: 1. EastAsian Node 2. South Asian Node 3. Western Europe 4. Eastern North America Population Density Map -China, India, Europe: high population density Largest Cities in the World (2004) -1. Tokyo, Japan (31.2 million people) -2. New York-Philadelphia, U.S. (30.1 million) -3. Mexico City, Mexico (21.5 million) -4. Seoul, South Korea (20.1 million) -5. Sao Paulo, Brazil (19.0 million) -6. Jakarta, Indonesia (18.2 million) -7. Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, Japan (17.6 million) -8. Delhi, India (17.3 million) -9. Mumbai (Bombay), India (17.3 million) -10. Los Angeles, U.S. (16.7 million) -11. Cairo, Egypt (15.8 million) -12. Calcutta, India (14.3 million) -13. Manila, Philippines (14.0 million) -14. Shanghai, China (13.9 million) -15. Buenos Aires,Argentina (13.2 million) -16. Moscow, Russia (12.2 million) -17. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (11.5 million) -18. Tehran, Iran (11.47 million) -19. Paris, France (11.41 million) -20. Rhein-Ruhr, Germany (11.2 million) -city in this course means the metropolitan area -*know largest, second largest, etc.* Less populated areas: 1. Northern Canada -very sparsely populated -by international law, you have sovereignty if there’s population there -Canada needs population up north 2. Northern USSR 3. Amazon Basin 4. Sahara Desert 5. Interior Australia Less Developed Regions -Share of World Population, 2000 -China: 21% -India: 17% -Other Asia/Oceania: 17% -Sub-SaharanAfrica: 11% -LatinAmerica: 8% -Near East/North Africa: 6% -Share of World Population, 2050 -Other Asia/Oceania: 20% -Sub-SaharanAfrica: 18% -India: 18% -China: 15% -LatinAmerica: 9% -Near East/North Africa: 8% Developing regions now account for nearly 75% of the world’s urban population -population in Europe and NorthAmerica declining as population inAsia soaring Population Density 2006 Map -Canada -highest density is southern Ontario -from Windsor to Quebec City -concentrated along US-Canada border Population Change in Canada (2001-2006) -some areas in Alberta and southern Ontariopopulation change by +10% Fewer Canadians between 30 and 39 years; more between 55 and 64 -Percentage change in the population by age groups between 2001 and 2006, Canada -senior population rising in Canada Population shares by province July 1 1983 – 2013 -Ontariolargest population -Quebec is #2 -it shrunk from 1983 to 2013 Doubling Time -The doubling time of a population is simply the number of years it would take for a population to double in size if the present rate of growth remained unchanged. Used for many years, its primary purpose has been to emphasize just how quickly populations can grow, doubling their numbers geometrically. -If a country’s population continues to grow at a constant rate of 2 percent, it will double in size every 35 years. 70/2.0 = 35 Doubling Time 2012 -Doubling time = 70/growth rate -For Canada = 70/1.1 = 63.6 years -For U.S. = 70/0.7 = 100 years -For Niger = 70/3.8 = 18.4 years Rate of Natural Increase: RNI = CBR – CDR -rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – current death rate Where, RNI = rate of natural increase CBR = crude birth rate CDR = crude death rate CBR = crude birth rate Number of births per 1000 population in one-year period CBR = (B/P) x 1000 B = number of births in one year P = mid-year population CDR = crude death rate Number of deaths per 1000 population in one-year period CDR = (D/P) x 1000 D = number of deaths in one year P = mid-year population Rate of Natural Increase: RNI = CBR – CDR =[(B/P) x 1000] – [(D/P) x 1000] Where, B = number of births in one year D = number of deaths in one year P = mid-year population Not as young as they were -Population, m, and life expectancy -number of people in older age group are becoming more prevalent -from government perspective, the number of people who needs to be supported by working force increases -social benefits must increase = tax increase -China = older population rise -US = same thing -life expectancy increasing Living longer -Life expectancy is continuing to rise, but there are big differences between rates in well-off and poorer countries -more developed regions have higher life-expectancy (65-80+ years) compared to less developed countries (40 to mid-70s years) -world average increase from late 40s to mid-70s -By the end of this century, the average person will be a little over 42 and newborns can expect to live to 81. The world’s population will have stabilised at just over 10 billion and those people will have accumulated 430 billion years of human experience between them Canada 2012 -Health-adjusted Life expectancy -Male 78.8 -Female 83.0 -Health-adjusted life expectancy is an indicator of the average number of years that an individual is expected to live in a healthy state World Rates -Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1000 population -that’s the norm everywhere (women live longer than man) -by 2050, the birth and death rates should be the same (birth rates will decrease while death rates remain steady) -Slower growth of the world’s population is largely due to the decline of birth rates – particularly in less developed countries – over the past 50 years. -crude birth rate (less developed countries) will decrease -crude death rate (less developed countries) will decrease a little and remain constant -crude birth rate (more developed countries) slowly decreasing -crude death rate (more developed countries) remain steady, increasing a bit Child mortality rate 1990 to 2006 -Deaths of under-5s per 1000 live births -highest ones: Sub-Saharan Africa (West and CentralAfrica, and Eastern and southern Africa) even though it is decreasing, it’s still high -South Asia decreased dramatically -overall: child mortality rate is declining International health Spending as Percentage of GDP -highest: Canada,Australia, European countries, U.S.,Argentina -moderate: China, Russia, mostAfrican countries, some SouthAmerican countries, Mexico -lowest: some in Africa, some in southAsia -Following tremendous advances in medical technology and knowledge, death rates have been driven down to new low levels for a good share of the world’s pop.--first time in human history, we are free from the great mortality crises of the past. BUT birth rate remained high -It is difficult to conceive of how this many people can be absorbed, therefore, fertility must be reduced or mortality increased. -medical advances: not really true -improvements in living conditions and improvements in agriculture: main -not until WWII that medical advances made changes to -only to developing countries, not developed world Malthus -assumption food supply can be increased only arithmetically, whereas population has the potential to increase geometrically -Food: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 -Population: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 -human population limited ...human population grow faster than food supply growth -population would grow geometrically and food would grow arithmetically -if it’s true, both would collide -at some point, population would exceed food supply -Population will outrun food supply -Checks -Misery -Vice (bad behaviour would shorten people’s lives) -Malthus expect population to exceed food production -empirical evidence shows this isn’t true (example in the 1970s) -in 1970s: -neo-Malthusian: resources in general rather than food -Population smaller than permitted by food supply. Times are good, more people marry, marry younger ages. Food supply adequate. More people survive, which increases population -Population has grown beyond the means of subsistence -Competition for land, jobs, wage low, food supply scarce. Death rate goes up, people postpone marriage. Birth rate goes down, population decreases Was He Right? -food production grew faster than population -food production is flattening now or slightly declining -Demand for grain rising because of China -Use of corn in ethanol production -U.S. uses a lot of corn for that purpose -Dwindling farmland in China – urbanization -growth of cities led to dwindling farmland -Greater meat consumption – especially in China -China: so large that it has a disproportionate demand...?? -rice, corn, wheatdecline in availability Lack of food is still a problem -Worse than sex -Leading global risk factors and contributions to burden of disease, % of disability-adjusted life years lost -developing countries: highly concerned about underweight infants and mothers, unsafe sex, unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene, indoor smoke from solid fuels, iron deficiency -developed countries: concerned about tobacco, high blood pressure Undernourished -global average is 13% of population -Congo: worst place in world, with 69% population undernourished -next is Eritrea with 64%, and then Burundi with 62% and Haiti with 57% Demographic Transition -Question: -Is there a causal linkage between modernization and fertility control, therefore, if LDCs are successful in economic development is a population explosion self-correcting over time? -yes -what about non-Western countries? -Taiwan and Japan and Singapore: it is valid for them -what about South Africa? -What is demographic transition – change from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality -4 stages The Demographic Transition -Stage 1: high birth rate, but fluctuating death rate -Stage 2: declining death rates and continuing high birth rates -Stage 3: declining birth and death rates -Stage 4: low death rates and low, but fluctuating birth rates -stable, but fluctuating Comings and goings -births and deaths per 1000 population in England and Wales -huge decline in birth rates in the late 1800s to early 1900s Summary of Main Features of Demographic Transition -1. Pre-industrial fertility levels lower than present LDC. -2. Industrialization released restraints on fertility and allowed it to rise initially. -3. Death rate improved slowly over 200 yrs. - Med. contributions late 1800s -4. Widening gap between births, & deaths led to acceleration of population growth (1 to 1.5% year max.). -current countries will not fit this model -Western Europe: pre industrial fertility levels were low -when industrialization started, children became useful part of working force -health conditions better?? -Decline in fertility took place late in the modernizing (industrializing) process -children not as economically viable -there were labour laws in place to protect children -Gap is closed, ending natural population increase, in the last stage of the demographic transition. The birth rate has receded to a level that is approximately equal to that of the already low death rate -Essentially, Malthus‘s view of population growth is one of the second stage of the demographic transition existing in perpetuity. The Demographic Transition -Finland is a good example of a country that has passed through the four stages of the demographic transition Nonwestern Examples -Taiwan -Japan However as development progresses many of the factors that propel population growth change -Marriage age -Social safety net -welfare, social security = people feel that they don’t need children = result in declining population -Value of farm labour -farming becomes more efficient Demographic Dividend -At an early stage of demographic transition, fertility rates fall, leading to fewer young mouths to feed -During this period, the labour force temporarily grows more rapidly than the population dependent on it, freeing up resources for investment in economic development and family welfare. -Other things being equal, per capita income grows more rapidly too. That's the first dividend. -This dividend period is quite long, lasting five decades or more, but eventually lower fertility reduces the growth rate of the labour force, while continuing improvements in old-age mortality speed growth of the elderly population. -Now, other things being equal, per capita income grows more slowly and the first dividend turns negative. -But a second dividend is also possible. -A population concentrated at older working ages and facing an extended period of retirement has a powerful incentive to accumulate assets—unless it is confident that its needs will be provided for by families or governments. -Whether these additional assets are invested domestically or abroad, national income rises. -older people work past retirement age? -2008 recession made many people go back to work -SOMETIME in the next few years (if it hasn’t happened already) the world will reach a milestone: 1/2 of humanity will be having only enough children to replace itself. That is, the fertility rate of half the world will be 2.1 or below. -Macroeconomic research bears out this picture. Fertility starts to drop at an annual income per person of $1,000-2,000 and falls until it hits the replacement level at an income per head of $4,000-10,000 a year. -This roughly tracks the passage from poverty to middle income status and from an agrarian society to a modern one. Thereafter fertility continues at or below replacement until, for some, it turns up again Falling backward? -If you were born before 1950, you witnessed something no other generation has seen: a doubling of world population. -In 1950 there were 2.5 billion of us; today there are 6.9 billion. -People alive today are also witnessing something else unprecedented. -Up until just recently, according Worldwatch Institute, countries could be counted on to go through demographic transition -No countries are currently in stage one. But there are roughly 150 countries, making up 86% of the world’s population, in stage two. -32 countries are in stage three, with 14% of the population. -Some countries are falling back into stage one. Their populations are becoming stable, not because of a decline in the birth rate, but from an increase in the death rate -Why? When a country’s population grows at 3 percent a year for several decades, the government’s resources may be stretched beyond the limit. -The country has to educate ever larger numbers of children, create jobs for the swelling ranks of young job seekers and cope with environmental threats. -These can include soil erosion, falling water tables and deforestation. -not possible for country to grow that fast (3%) -due to economic growth -China: exception -Problems routinely manage in industrial societies are becoming full-scale humanitarian crises in m
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