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2013-10-08 Energy.docx

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Geography 2143A/B
Milford Green

Energy October 8, 2013 Production and Consumption Diagram -energy has two sides: one is production and the other is consumption (where does the energy produced go?) -statistical perspective: more stats on production than consumption -Left side of diagram -40% is still oil -includes diesel gasoline, kerosene, refinery petroleum products, etc. -natural gas #2 -if present trends continue, then it will increase its share (on the expense of coal) -coal production is going to decline in next 5 to 10 years (at least in developed world) -reason: from pollution perspective, natural gas is preferable fuel; but geographic perspective, coal is different in distribution on world scale is different from other -North America: very well-endowed in natural gas, but not oil (but technology is changing that) -when you have energy produced you have enrgy either energy consumed in the form it’s been produced or preserved chemically to something else, or in the case of coal or nuclear power, where we substitute electrical generation as a form of energy production -almost all coal produced is for electrical power consumption -nuclear power is all electrical -End consumption -oil is used mainly for transportation, which takes up 27.1% of total consumption (takes up most share) -renewables such as ethanol might make a difference, but now it’s not economically viable -natural gas: on NorthAmerica, its split between industrial and residential uses -there’s a lot of shift towards natural gas (power generation) over last couple of years -major change going underway in terms of production Lost energy -most of energy produced is wasted -we technically don’t know how to increase efficiency 1 Global fuel mix by decade -Graph -for most of last 250 years, biomass was major fuel source -Industrial Revolution in the beginning was almost entirely fuelled by wood -discovered coal was a substitute -for most of Industrial Revolution period to 20 century, coal was by far the majority of use in energy -Britain had substantial deposits of coal; United States has major deposits near Appalachian range and in Wyoming -last half of 20 century to first half of 21 century; coal was major form in which it fuelled military material -starting WWII, we see shift away from coal to petroleum-based industry -petroleum goes way back to early 1800s -but it’s not until early 1920s that it became a major focus -by 1970, oil petroleum becomes dominant form of energy -peak oil: at some point, we will max out the amount of oil we produce and there will be a shortage -big discussion topic for 10 years but we don’t talk about it anymore with introduction of fracking (injecting water/chemicals into the ground, causing underline rock to fracture, which then oil seeps out and you pull it out) -recent technology; known since 1950s but it wasn’t put into play until the last 5-6 years -News: US scheduled to produce more energy than Russia -doesn’t seem like a big deal but the Russian economy runs off of energy exports -this shows how much different this technology is made -from Canadian perspective, it matters: Canada is going to become much less important to U.S. as a source of petroleum -Canada’s major export partner for oil is US (far more than SaudiArabia) -Keystone XL: controversial -Alberta: build pipeline from east to the west -sell oil to China, Japan, Eastern Europe -government has given approval for these projects will cause orientation in Canadian economy, away from US towards more diversified consumer base -hydro has been constant over last 30-40 years -most of the sites that are readily accessible have already been used -limited left -nuclear -since the earthquake in Japan, it has lost its shine as a major source -other renewables: include 10 alternative sources (e.g. ethanol, solar, wind, etc.) Global energy demand by fuel type -oil is number 1; expected to remain number 1 2 -this is in a global scale -North America: demand for oil will fall and natural gas will increase -some economies still dependent on oil -Japan: has none at all and have to import every barrel they use -Canada: surplus exist for natural gas and oil -coal: going to decline (in developed world) -unlikely that China will reduce consumption of coal -it’s readily available and they have substantial coal reserve (very attractive for them) -nuclear: will increase -there are a number of plants under construction -wind/solar/biofuels -expected to increase, but won’t make a big difference -they’re very small compared to conventional energy sources -efficiency of solar cells is not sufficient yet to be economically viable -they’re getting there though -some of promising sources of biofuel is out in the market (e.g. algae) -corn not efficient for ethanol -geothermal: geographically bound to places World primary energy demand -China: estimated to continually grow to 2035 -a year ago, China surpassed US as the biggest energy consumer -China using more energy than US -has nothing to do with level of efficiency -two big players are China and US: two largest economies in the world -they have the greatest influence on economic conditions and are largest consumers of energy -US: slightly decrease over time -China: gradually increase over time -as China becomes more economically developed, its level of consumption will fall (normally happens when the economy becomes developed) -Global demand for energy will increase by 36% between 2008 and 2035 -Emerging economies will account for almost all of this increase (93%) -as demand goes up, price goes up -we can anticipate that energy crisis will make price increase -almost all this increase in demand comes from developing world -developed economy has more of less been flat in terms of consumption in the last decade (e.g. Canada, US, Western Europe) -the amount of renewables is slightly increasing -red line: China -substantial increase 3 -if you look at any energy sector, Chinese firms are heavily involved in acquiring those resources -oil: they are trying to acquire reserves inAfrica -not so much in natural gas -China has a nuclear program, has an active solar/wind program, building power plants -majority of those are coal-based -pollution perspective – not good -Energy-demand growth in developed nations is expected to be modest in coming years and actually fall 2% overall from 2010 to 2040, thanks largely to efficiency improvements, Exxon predicts -But developing nations will see energy demand grow 57% through 2040, with demand for electricity expected to grow by 80% as the standard of living improves -world demand is going to be for electricity -this is where solar and wind is useful (direct conversion to electricity) -they produce direct current power -China and India will account for more than 40 percent of the increase in global energy use by 2030 -coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro: China is #1 -India: growth rate has not reached China’s Oil consumption per capita 2012 -Canada and SaudiArabia are highest -SaudiArabia also world’s biggest producer in oil -US isn’t far behind in terms of consumption Canada’s total energy consumption type, 2010 -major source is petroleum (32%) -natural gas is #2 -both petroleum and natural gas are found in the same place:Alberta -98% of reserves in Canada are located inAlberta -geographically concentrated -hydro: Eastern Canada -some nuclear, coal, renewables -The energy required to produce a unit of GDP is falling in most countries around the world.As countries industrialize, energy-intensive businesses make up a bigger share of the economy 4 -Peaks generally correlate to the high point of heavy industry, before lighter industry and higher value-added businesses (such as services) begin to replace old-fashioned smokestack manufacturers -This often coincides with gains in energy efficiency -as you move up in the level of industrialization, you require more energy -e.g. skill industry, heavy machine industryyou use a lot of energy -once you move to service industry, energy consu
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