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PHIL 1022E (30)
John Thorp (10)
Lecture
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Pascal’s Wager
•Inventor of probability calculus
•Laid foundations of infinitesimal calculus
•Built the first calculating machine
•Experiments in physics, especially fluid dynamics
•Religious thinker and writer
Views on God
•Thought the argument for the existence of God were not compelling
•The arguments against gods existence of god were also not compelling
•Established that we were caught in an inescapable ignorance about whether
or not god exists
•He proposed that if we cant settle the truth about god we should ask…
oGiven the evidence that does not compel us in one way or another, is it
reasonable to believe in God?
oIs it more rational to believe in god (and behave accordingly)
oOr not to believe in god (and behave accordingly)
•G – God exists
oG may be true, or false, and I may believe or not believe
oCross-divide to see probability
I believe G G is true GG
I believe G G is false Little Loss
I don’t believe G G is true Feel it
I don’t believe G G is false Small win
•The big win and the big loss are immeasurably bigger than the little win and
the little loss
•The only way to be sure of avoiding the big loss, you must believe G
oDoesn’t guarantee a big win, but it is the only way to achieve it it
•Therefore, it is rational to believe G
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