Philosophy 2300F/G Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Probability Axioms, Prior Probability, Bayesian Probability
24 Mar 2016
School
Department
Course
Professor
Document Summary
How do hypotheses get con rmed by empirical evidence. Hypothetico deductivism: we must use deductive reasoning to deduce observable predictions from hypotheses. We found theat this approach leads to all kinds of problems. It would seem that neither inductive nor deductive reasoning on their own can sole the problem of con rmation. But there is another form of reasoning that scientists use: probabilistic reasoning. The mathematical theory of probability has its beginnings 400 years ago. A set of axioms- basic, underived truths, were given for probability theory by a soviet mathematician. For this reason, we must introduce the notion of a conditional probability the probability that a hypothesis is true when some other statement (e) is true p (h/e) = p(h and e)/ p(e) When you get to gregs you nd dans car outside. Dan parks his car at gregs house 60% of the time p(e)=. 6.
