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Lecture 7: International Law, Nuclear Proliferation and Arms
Problem: Nuclear Proliferation
- Is nuclear proliferation a mounting problem
- Does nuclear deterrence work?
- What are the implications of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East
o Concern with Iran developing their own weapon
- Which countries have nuclear weapons?
- Is nuclear terrorism a threat?
Solution: Arms Control
- What is the nuclear non-proliferation regime?
- Has the NPT worked?
- Will the Comprehensive Test Ban be honoured
- Can the IAEA control the spread of nuclear terrorism?
Solution: Nuclear Proliferation
- What does Kenneth Waltz assert about the efficacy of nuclear weapons proliferation?
New Solution: Sanctions
- How can countries like north Korea and Iran be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons
Problem: Nuclear Proliferation
- Is nuclear proliferation a mounting problem?
- Has anybody read about the suit case weapon or how to build a bomb in your basement
- Dirty bombs?
o The most common nuclear weapon a terrorist organization is likely to produce is referred
to as a dirty bomb
o More likely to be used because it will kill less people, but still cause fear and chaos
- “A dirty bomb would be made of ordinary explosives - such as dynamite - packaged with
radioactive material, which would be dispersed when the bomb goes off.”
o Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei when he was IAEA Director General (Nobel Peace Prize
winner)
- Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) includes atomic, chemical & biological weapons so
nuclear disarmers decline to use the term as they consider the A for atomic in ABC to be far
worse than BC.
- Interested in Chemical Weapons Proliferation?
In Canada, your passion about combatting chemical weapons could lead to a successful career
here and abroad
What continues to be the main source of „loose nukes‟ and „unsecured chemical weapons‟?
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- The former Soviet Union (FSU) is the principal source of loose nukes and unsecured chemical
weapons. To read about the G-8 Global Partnership program, see this overview:
- Group members pledged $20 billion over ten years in an effort to destroy Russian chemical
weapons, dismantle decommissioned nuclear submarines, find work for underemployed weapons
scientists, and secure nuclear, radiological, and biological weapons all of which posed, and
continue to pose significant threats, should terrorist groups apprehend them.
Is nuclear proliferation a mounting problem?
- atomic (tactical) weapons (e.g. „Little Boy‟ dropped on Hiroshima)
- thermonuclear weapons (strategic) (40X more powerful)
- mutual assured deterrence (MAD)
- first-strike nuclear war
- limited nuclear war
- terrorist attack using small nukes
- terrorist threat using crude weapons (dirty bombs)
- “weapons and weapons-grade materials inadequately secured against theft”
o Graham Allison, Director of Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs
Nuclear Facilities in Former USSR
- Did anyone read about this?
o The Russian facilities that store nuclear weapons and weapons-grade materials are in a
troubling state.
- For example, 80 percent of the facilities lack monitoring systems to detect nuclear materials
leaving the building.
- Many use simple padlocks to secure doors
Nuclear Facilities in Russia
- “the vast majority of installations now have fences. But you know Russians. If you walk along the
perimeter, you can see a hole in the fence, because employees want to come and go freely.”
o Alexander Pikayev, Scholar-in-Residence, Program Co-chair, The Carnegie Moscow
Center
Insecure Borders of FSU
- The collapse of the Soviet Union created 15 new countries and effectively 15 new borders to
control
- The bureaucratic disorder caused by the transition and the chaotic state of the military has left
these borders more penetrable
Organized Crime in Russia
- The most prominent subnational elements within Russia are organized crime groups
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